Why Today’s Market Selloff Could Be A Good Thing
Investors are learning - the hard way - that when something seems too easy, it almost certainly is.
For most of this year, the idea of riding stocks higher - even buying successive new highs in the U.S. indexes – has been viewed as a path to effortless gains, supported by central banks’ easy-money resolve and a resilient (if moderate) economic expansion.
Now, suddenly, a cocktail of worry is served - its ingredients global-growth fears, unclear central-bank intentions and a market tape that had been stretched far to the upside. The mixture is a bitter one, most dramatically spurring a 7.3% buckling of Japan’s overheated Nikkei stock index as well as a shudder of downside volatility in U.S. stocks.
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The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (GSPC) had been “melting up,” in the common description, climbing a gentle slope to a new record at 1669 Monday, up 17% on the year and 23% since mid-November, without so much as a 4% pullback. Japanese stocks, meantime, had about doubled in value in a spree of enthusiasm and fast-money speculation, a reaction to the hyper-aggressive monetary stimulus endorsed by Prime Minister Abe and the Bank of Japan to radically weaken the yen, escape deflation and stoke economic growth.
Then beginning Tuesday morning, from Washington, Beijing and Tokyo, perfectly good excuses to sell stocks emerged – and for once this year, investors accepted them.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sent ambiguous signals in Congress, hinting at a potential lessening of Fed asset purchases “at the next few meetings” if the economy strengthens enough. The S&P 500 sank nearly 2% from a morning high as investors used the mixed message as an excuse for some long-overdue selling, and Treasury yields lifted above 2%, a sign that the all-seeing bond market was bracing for the Fed to “taper” its monthly asset purchases.
China’s closely tracked purchasing managers’ index showed an unexpected decline, the first in seven months, reviving once-pervasive but recently calmed fears of a “hard landing” in the Chinese economy. The jarring selloff in Japanese stocks – a sudden scattering of the sparrows coming even after the market had been up early in Tokyo trading - also came as yields on Japanese government bonds – whose recent volatility has concerned some policy makers – kept surging from ultra-low levels, topping a 1% for the first time in more than a year.
So, how to characterize this global reaction to what appear to be somewhat opposing concerns, over both weaker growth and Fed scaling-back of its stimulus help in reaction to a firmer economy?