If China is going to muscle aside the United States—as many global citizens apparently believe—it’s going to have to generate wealth at a pace that would be astounding even for China.

A recent Pew Research Center poll has gotten a lot of attention because a majority of people in many nations—and even 47% of Americans—believe China has either eclipsed the U.S as a world power, or soon will.

The facts suggest that is ridiculous. China’s per-capita GDP is just $9,300, according to the CIA World Factbook. That ranks 123rd in the world. U.S. GDP per capita is $51,000, which ranks 14^th. The only countries richer than the U.S. tend to be small, homogenous places such as Qatar, Luxembourg and Singapore.

No competition

For all its manufacturing might, China still has a huge population of 1.3 billion that includes hordes living in poverty or subsistence conditions. That saps resources and distorts economic policies at least as much as lobbying interests and me-first politics do in the United States. In the World Economic Forum’s annual competitiveness rankings, China ranks 29^th, many spots behind the U.S., which ranks seventh.

Military might derives directly from economic wealth, which is why the U.S. military vastly outclasses that of any other nation. China spends about $166 billion a year on national security, or 2% of its GDP, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. That’s significant, but it’s only about one-fourth the U.S. defense budget of about $650 billion per year, or 4.4% of GDP.

China does have nuclear weapons, intercontinental missiles, modern submarines and other trappings of a superpower, yet it lacks the stealth technology, sophisticated command and control systems, thorough professionalism and other assets that make the U.S. military a standout. In a military confrontation, China could bloody U.S. forces, but it couldn't prevail.

China undoubtedly has a lot going for it, since it’s growing rapidly and in many ways executing smart national policies meant to cement its stature as a world power. There’s also some evidence the power and prestige of the U.S. is waning. The U.S., though, would have to fall quite a long way—and China rise just as far—before the Middle Kingdom could ever displace America as an economic and geopolitical power.

The WEF classifies China as a Stage 2 nation, which means it has become adept at the efficient production of commodities. Other nations with the same designation include Indonesia, Jordan and South Africa. According to the WEF, the U.S. is a Stage 3 nation with a more productive economy that runs on innovation. China, by contrast, tends to steal trade secrets rather than developing its own new technologies, which is just one reason it remains a long way from Stage 3 status.