For restaurant stocks, the party's going very, very long
After an extraordinary run for restaurant stocks in 2013, the food-service industry has gotten off to a much slower start this year — a turnabout that, if not due, is certainly understandable.
The group, which has grown accustomed to beating the S&P 500 during the post-crisis rally, trails the index since Dec. 31. Though that's arguably a tenuous reason for concern, it isn't out of line to question whether the group is cooling off. Eventually, competitive pressures, hard-to-come-by sales growth and uneven guest traffic have to catch up with at least some of these stocks; they haven't, on the whole, retreated since 2008.
With a big assist from an ever-climbing broad market, money managers' giddiness over the fast-casual subset's expansion and a media that doesn't tire of food-related buzz, you would have almost certainly made money of late drawing a restaurant name out of a hat. That could be changing, if traders finally choose specific winners and abandon the has-beens or those that operationally aren't doing much particularly plaudit-worthy.
Though it is early in the year, the publicly traded restaurants, names from McDonald's (MCD) to Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), aren't quite as lustrous as they were only a few weeks ago. Of 38 names we looked at, 23 are down so far this year. In total, the industry had lost 3.3% as of midday Feb. 12 vs. the S&P's 1.6% pullback.
Clearly, every market is different, but a year ago at this time, the restaurants were enjoying an upbeat time, climbing 7.2% through the first five weeks, outpacing the 6.4% rise in the S&P. Only three stocks in the group showed a loss. By the end of the year, that number hadn't changed — 35 stocks rose for the year, giving the restaurants a gain of 54.7%, well above the market's 29.6% advance. Ruby Tuesday (RT), Romano's Macaroni Grill owner Ignite Restaurant Group (IRG) and pizza, sandwich and beer shop BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) missed out.
Dessert time
That the restaurants on the whole would surpass the S&P in 2013 wasn't a surprise. In each of the five years through 2012, they did so every time, by an average of 20.1 points. Last year, however, it was a greater margin at 25.1 points. The magnitude of the increase appears even more pronounced when you note it exceeds the restaurants' average 22.3% move up by 32.5 percentage points. Taking out 2008, when the group shed 38.1%, roughly in line with the S&P, last year was still better than the average of the prior four years by 17 points.
Of the 30 restaurant stocks with at least five full years of trading history, 20 hit all-time highs last year. Continuing that momentum, six have done so again this year. For some, it's been the pull of the market overall, as the S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to record levels in recent months. For others, it's specific. Chipotle (CMG) has run ahead as investors sought to profit from the fast-casual frenzy, whereas Wendy's (WEN) got a boost from expanding its franchise component — companies opting for the clarity of franchise flows over the cost of corporate-run stores have been hailed by traders.