US labor market growth points to 'soft, but bumpy landing'
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised US payroll figures downward by 818,000, and stocks (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) are rallying in response to this preliminary data. Inflation Insights Founder and President Omair Sharif and Evercore ISI Senior Economist Marco Casiraghi join Catalysts to analyze adjustment in key jobs data. Sharif acknowledges that the revision was larger than he had anticipated; however, he emphasizes that there are still "175,000 solid jobs" being added each month, indicating healthy growth in the labor market. He does caution, though, that these numbers are preliminary, stating, "I wouldn't be at all surprised if we got a somewhat smaller figure when all is said and done." Despite this uncertainty, Sharif believes that the crucial focus for the Federal Reserve remains the unemployment rate. Turning to market reactions, Casiraghi points out that "the market is very sensitive to daily data," as recession fears seem to be on a "roller coaster." However, he notes that if you "zoom out," you can see that the economy continues to slow down while still growing. He explains that the labor market is softening, though not rapidly deteriorating, concluding that "overall, this picture is more consistent with a soft, but bumpy landing" rather than a hard landing scenario. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts. This post was written by Angel Smith
