10 Most Dangerous Airlines In The World

Aima Zaheer

Wed, Dec 27, 2023, 5:23 PM9 min read

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In this article, we will take a look at the 10 most dangerous airlines in the world. If you want to skip our discussion on the airline industry, you can go directly to the 5 Most Dangerous Airlines In The World.

Air transport is essential for the development of the global economy as it facilitates connectivity. It enables the free flow of goods, technology, capital, people, and ideas across the globe to support the economic cycle. However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic brought an abrupt halt to air transport. This disruption significantly impacted airline operations globally, resulting in the industry experiencing an unprecedented loss of $140 billion in 2020.

In 2023, the airline industry witnessed a substantial recovery post-COVID-19. The industry-wide revenue for 2023 is projected to reach $896 billion, surpassing the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) June outlook by $93 billion. The expected profit is also $9.8 billion higher than the previously predicted value. This jump in revenue is due to a significant increase in passenger business throughout the year. Passenger traffic recorded a 40% YoY increase in September and achieved 92.9% of the pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, with the exception of Asia Pacific, all regions worldwide are expected to either reach or exceed the 2019 levels of passenger traffic in 2023. Conversely, the cargo segment of the airline industry faced a slowdown this year, with cargo tons per kilometer being lower than the levels in 2022. The primary reason for this is the deceleration in global trade. However, IATA predicts a 4.54% growth in this segment next year.

Even with such a significant and fast turnaround, the airline industry faces its own set of challenges. The most significant of these challenges is the vulnerability of this industry to external factors. These factors include economic slowdown, geo-political challenges, rising oil prices, supply chain issues, and regulatory pressures. Furthermore, air safety is one of the major concerns affecting airlines' operations. A high-profile air crash can easily tarnish the reputation of an airline, leading to a decline in revenues as passengers switch to competing airlines. Hence, notable companies such as American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL), United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL), and Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) spend millions to ensure compliance with all safety standards and aim to be one of safest airlines in the world. You can also check out the 20 Best Airlines in the World in 2023 here.

Here's what Patient Capital Management said about Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) in its Q3 2023 investor letter:

“Airlines returned to trough multiples as higher oil prices pressured costs. Historically, airlines have passed these costs on to customers. We think Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) is a premium brand valued like its economics aren’t sustainable. With mid-teens returns on capital, significant free cash flow generation, excellent capital allocation and long-term earnings per share growth in the high-single to low-double-digits, we think the company is significantly mispriced.
Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) reversed course in the third quarter, falling 24% from its highs in July. The airlines in general were hurt from rising commodity prices that are leading to increased cost per available seat mile (CASM). Historically, airlines have passed on higher fuel prices to customers with a lag. We see Delta as a premium global consumer brand that is materially misunderstood by the market. The market still sees airlines as a cyclical, bankruptcy prone industry. An improved supply-demand picture, management discipline and a better business mix make Delta a more resilient business. Their loyalty program with American Express is a source of stable and growing revenues with $6.5B in remunerations this year with a goal of reaching $10B by the end of the contract in 2028. Premium and ancillary service revenue should generate 65-70% of the total in the next year or two. The company should continue to generate consistent mid-teens returns on capital. As the market begins to understand, we believe the company will continue to be rewarded. On top of this, free cash flow is expected to expand generating a cumulative ~$11B from ’23-’25, or one-half of its current market cap. As the company pays down debt while growing the dividend and eventually resuming share repurchases, we think the stock will continue to trend higher.”

The last few decades have seen significant advances in aircraft engineering, which have rendered aviation the safest mode of travel. In 2022, IATA reported 1.21 accidents per million sectors. This is an improvement of 48% as compared to 2013, when 2.31 accidents per million sectors were reported. While most of the airlines remain safe, there are some which have terrible safety records. With this context in mind, let's begin our list of the 10 most dangerous airlines in 2023.

An Airbus single-aisle aircraft overfly a major city, showcasing the airline services of the company.

Our Methodology

To shortlist the 10 most dangerous airlines in the world, we consulted the Aviation Safety Network and Airline Ratings databases. Airline Ratings is a platform that rates over 350 airlines worldwide based on multiple metrics using a 7-star scale. Our evaluation considered the number of fatal accidents in the last 10 years, incident rating, and audit status for the shortlisted airlines. Fatal accidents include only those accidents which caused the death of the crew and passengers on board. Incident Rating takes into account serious incidents caused by the pilot’s mistakes. Meanwhile, the audits considered for the rating include the IOSA audit, ICAO country audit, and EU and FAA bans, indicating an airline’s commitment to safety regulations. The 10 most dangerous airlines in the world have been ranked in descending order of their ratings.

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