The big picture we see for 2024 is of a shallow U-shaped recovery in global economic and earnings growth, rather than the V-shape seen in the last two global recessions of 2008-09 and 2020. If in 2023 the global economy experienced a soft landing with growth for much of the Group of Seven countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United States, and United Kingdom) stalling but not contracting much, then it's also likely that a soft recovery gets slowly underway during 2024, with growth rebounding only modestly (and unevenly) throughout the year. Global stocks may react with heightened volatility to the seemingly chaotic data points as parts of the global economy move in different directions, with a broader stabilization and recovery only visible over time. Patient investors in global stocks with an eye on the big picture may benefit despite an uneven path higher should markets discount better growth ahead supported by rate cuts among major central banks.

On the bottom line, we are now expecting to deliver full year 2023 adjusted operating EBITDA at the mid to high end of our previously announced guidance of $1.85 billion to $2 billion, driven primarily by favorable price to inflation and improved productivity. We also now expect full year interest expense to be slightly higher at approximately $450 million. Our projected effective tax rate for the year is expected to be approximately 21%, the same estimate we provided last quarter. Finally, as we look to the fourth quarter, we continue to expect an improving trend in the majority of our businesses as we navigate the macroeconomic challenges impacting our industry. We are seeing signs of green shoots in the fourth quarter, with stabilization improvements across several parts of our business.

As we near the end of the year, I know many of you have questions on 2024. While the macroeconomic environment remains volatile with low visibility, we are optimistic heading into the new year. We have several known one-off items that we have high level of confidence will be tailwinds, including significant negative absorption related to our successful inventory reduction program and onetime Locust Bean Kernel inventory write-down.

We expect the challenging macroeconomic dynamics to continue through the fourth quarter, including sluggish industrial activity. Global Manufacturing PMI has declined for the 13 consecutive month in September. It also includes weak demand in Europe and a slower-than-expected recovery in China. While inflation continues to moderate, it remains at elevated levels, resulting in a continuation of a tighter monetary policy. In the U.S., we’re seeing some mixed indicators as September manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8. Retail sales growth remains positive, while consumer confidence has declined for the last two months. In Europe, industrial and consumer demand remains weak despite sharply lower inflation.

PMI has contracted for 15 consecutive months through September, and consumer confidence remains low. With that said, automotive demand is showing signs of resilience. In China, while manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory in September, China exports fell for the fifth straight month. Automotive sales and production are a bright spot, rising in August, both sequentially and over the prior year in September. Around the rest of the world, India’s manufacturing PMI remains expansionary, while in Mexico, industrial production rose for more than 20 months in August. However, ASEAN manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in two years in September. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, we will continue to take a disciplined approach to managing our operations while leveraging our diverse global portfolio and our cost-advantaged assets.

“Corteva, Inc. (NYSE:CTVA) is a leading provider of seed and crop protection chemicals. We believe the seed and crop protection markets have sizeable barriers to entry due to the duration and magnitude of investment required to compete. Both industries require constant innovation: Farmers expect seed yield improvement each year while nature develops immunity to crop protection chemicals over time. As a result, advantages accrue to the largest players with the most R&D resources. Within this context, we believe Corteva is very well positioned. The company has scale, well-recognized brands, a loyal customer base, and a promising R&D pipeline. In addition, we see idiosyncratic opportunities for Corteva to improve its profitability over time, and we believe the current management team is executing well against this opportunity. More recently, the stock has been pressured by near-term headwinds related to inventory destocking and declining crop prices. We see this weakness as an opportunity to invest in a high-quality and defensible business at a discount to both its own historical trading multiple and private market transactions.”

“While the market has recently been focused on GPU chips and AI scripts, our attention has been on cement blocks and crushed rocks. We’ve enthusiastically made CRH one of our largest positions ever at cost due to its limited downside. CRH is among the largest aggregates and infrastructure companies in the United States and Europe and has recently relisted to the NYSE from the LSE, which we believe will be a catalyst for the stock to rerate upwards towards peer valuations as its undeniable value hiding in plain sight becomes more widely discussed.

In 1970, Cement Limited and Roadstone Limited, two Irish infrastructure-focused companies, combined to form Cement and Roadstone Holdings, or “CRH.” An investment of $1 million into CRH upon its founding since that fateful merger ~53 years ago would have turned into ~$1.5 billion by mid-year 2023, an annualized total return to investors of 15.0%, a high rate of compounding we think can continue.

Half a century of success at CRH has been driven by disciplined operations and capital allocation that we believe derives from a company culture built around appropriate financial incentives. CRH’s M&A playbook has proven to be successful as an acquisitive company like CRH can’t compound at a rate of 15% over 50 years unless acquisitions and divestitures have been executed at attractive prices. Over the last five years, CRH has spent $10.3 billion on acquisitions while receiving $10.5 billion in proceeds from divestitures across dozens of transactions, with the average acquisition multiple ranging from 7x – 8x EBITDA depending on the year and the average exit multiple clocking in at 11x EBITDA.”