Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

The earnings figure itself is key, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb even higher.

2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to look at a qualifying stock. Iamgold (IAG) holds a Zacks Rank #1 at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.13 a share 30 days away from its upcoming earnings release on November 14, 2024.

Iamgold's Earnings ESP sits at 10.3%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.13 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.11.

IAG is part of a big group of Basic Materials stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Alamos Gold (AGI) as well.

Alamos Gold, which is readying to report earnings on November 6, 2024, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.24 a share, and AGI is 22 days out from its next earnings report.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alamos Gold is $0.23, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of 2.86%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, IAG and AGI could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>