24 Countries With Biggest Population Decline
This article will list countries where population is continuously decreasing and highlight the major reasons behind this population decline. You can skip our detailed overview of the world’s population patterns and read 10 Countries With Biggest Population Decline.
Recent estimates from the United Nations predict that the global population will reach approximately 8.5 billion by 2030, expand to 9.7 billion by 2050, and further increase to 10.4 billion by 2100. This growth is driven partly by declining death rates and an increase in average life expectancy, which rose to 72.8 years in 2019, a 9-year increase since 1990.
However, some regions, particularly in Europe, are facing population declines due to lower birth rates and a trend towards smaller families. It is projected that by 2050, the populations of 61 countries or areas will decrease by at least 1%, largely owing to low fertility and, in some instances, high emigration rates.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) reports a significant decrease in global fertility rates. Currently, two-thirds of the global population lives in areas where the fertility rate is below 2.1 births per woman, the threshold needed for population replacement. In countries with populations over 500,000, the most pronounced decreases (up to 20% or more) are expected in Europe by 2050.
In regions with long-standing low fertility rates, the number of women of childbearing age is declining, leading to slower population growth or, in some cases, population decline. Europe, with fertility rates below replacement level since the late 1970s, is the only region expected to experience a population decrease of about 7% between 2022 and 2050, primarily due to advanced demographic aging.
Population decline can lead to labor shortages and decreased economic growth, as a smaller workforce supports a growing number of retirees. Socially, it may increase the burden on the working-age population and necessitate changes in immigration policies to supplement the workforce. Additionally, a shrinking population can lead to reduced consumer demand, impacting businesses and economies.
See which countries will be safe from these repercussions in 50 Most Populated Countries In 2050.
Innovative Treatments For Infertility and Their Impact
While decreasing birth rates are largely due to intentional family planning, infertility remains a significant challenge. Over 80 million couples worldwide struggle with conceiving. To assist, modern medical science has advanced treatments such as IVF (In Vitro Fertilization), IUI (Intrauterine Insemination), and TIC (Timed Intercourse), making them more accessible. Despite the high costs, over 2.5 million IVF cycles are performed annually, as reported by Empowered Women’s Health.
In addressing this issue, companies like Progyny, Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY), a prominent fertility benefits management company, have made significant progress in enhancing outcomes for individuals facing infertility. In the United States, only 21 states mandate insurance coverage for fertility procedures, and out-of-pocket expenses can be exorbitant, with a single IVF cycle costing between $15,000 and $30,000. Progyny's approach offers comprehensive coverage, which is beneficial in this context.
Progyny, Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY) offers two main models of fertility benefits: cycle-based and dollar-cap lifetime maximum benefits. The cycle-based model "bundles" all treatment aspects, providing flexibility to ensure patients maintain coverage throughout their treatment. This approach has led to improved care and long-term cost savings due to better outcomes. In contrast, the dollar-cap model sets a fixed reimbursement amount per member, often leading to inequities and increased stress. This is because it fails to consider individual needs, potentially influencing decisions based on cost. Progyny, Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY), with about 950 fertility experts and 650 clinics across the U.S., provides essential services in IVG (In Vitro Gametogenesis), IUI, TIC, and IVF, among others, to ease the infertility journey for couples.
Must Read: 50 Most Populated Countries in 2030
Let’s now talk about countries with the population decrease!
24 Countries With Biggest Population Decline
Our Methodology
The list of countries with declining populations was compiled based on projected population decreases from 2020 to 2025 and their annual rate of population change. We used the UN DESA's World Population Prospects 2022 revision to identify countries expected to experience the most significant population declines over the next three decades. Additionally, the World Bank's database provided data on each country's yearly population change. We ranked the countries based on these two criteria, projected decline, and annual change, and then calculated an average ranking to create our final list. This list is organized in ascending order according to the magnitude of their projected population decline.
Based on the available data, here are countries with declining populations:
24. Georgia
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 11.80%
Annual Population Change: 0.10%
Composite Ranking: 24
Georgia's population has significantly declined since the early 1990s. The country reached its peak population of approximately 5.5 million in 1992. However, the subsequent years were marked by turmoil due to civil unrest and economic struggles, resulting in a substantial emigration of people from the country, especially during the 1990s and early 2000s. The 2002 census reported a loss of over one million people, which amounted to nearly 20% of the population since the early 1990s. As of 2023, the population has stabilized at around 3.7 million and is projected to decrease to 3.3 million by 2050.
See what the century’s end would look like regarding the population in the 50 Most Populated Countries in 2100.
23. Portugal
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 10.90%
Annual Population Change: 0.50%
Composite Ranking: 23
Portugal's fertility rate, below the replacement level, has been a key factor in placing it among countries facing population reduction. Economic instability, especially following the 2008 financial crisis, led to a surge in emigration, with younger and skilled individuals seeking opportunities abroad. As a result, Portugal's demographic structure is increasingly skewed toward an older population, exacerbating challenges in healthcare, pension systems, and workforce sustainability. Notably, Portugal now has a striking demographic ratio, with 182 individuals aged 65 or older for every 100 people aged 14 or younger. This statistic positions Portugal as the fastest-aging country within the European Union, ultimately impeding its population growth.
You can read more on other aging populations in 20 Countries with the Oldest Populations in the World.
22. Slovak Republic
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 8.37%
Annual Population Change: -0.30%
Composite Ranking: 22
The Slovak Republic's fertility rate remains below the population replacement threshold, currently standing at 1.55 children per woman, while the necessary fertility rate to replace the existing population is 2.1 children per woman. This issue is compounded by the emigration of young adults, especially to Western European countries, in search of better job prospects and higher standards of living. The departure of these young, often highly educated individuals results in a brain drain that impacts the country's economic growth and development. Notably, Slovakia is among the most liked countries in the world, but its emigration rate remains high.
21. Estonia
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 12.70%
Annual Population Change: 1%
Composite Ranking: 21
Estonia's population decline is a complex issue with historical roots in its Soviet past and current challenges, including low birth rates and emigration. While Estonia has one of the highest fertility rates in Eastern Europe (1.58 children per woman), it still falls below the replacement level. High emigration, particularly after joining the European Union in 2004, has resulted in a significant number of young people leaving. Additionally, the aging population is a growing concern, with a high proportion of elderly citizens putting increased pressure on healthcare and social systems.
20. North Macedonia
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 10.90%
Annual Population Change: -0.40%
Composite Ranking: 20
North Macedonia has one of the lowest fertility rates in the Balkans, standing at 1.3 children per woman, which places it among countries with shrinking populations. This is compounded by economic challenges that encourage people to emigrate. The outflow of young, often educated individuals exacerbates the demographic crisis, which in turn impacts economic development. The aging population presents additional challenges in terms of healthcare and pension system sustainability.
Also Read: 30 Countries With Highest Rates of Population Growth
19. Cuba
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 10.30%
Annual Population Change: -0.40%
Composite Ranking: 19
The fertility rate in Cuba has been below replacement level for decades, consistently around 1.7 children per woman on average. The decline in birth rates is often attributed to economic hardships, limited housing, and the increased participation of women in the workforce. Moreover, the ongoing economic crisis and political factors have spurred an emigration wave, also cementing its position among countries with declining populations.
18. Italy
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 10.10%
Annual Population Change: -0.40%
Composite Ranking: 18
Italy is facing one of the most severe population declines in Europe, driven by consistently low birth rates and an aging population. The country has one of the world's lowest fertility rates, averaging around 1.29 children per woman. Economic factors, such as high youth unemployment and the expensive cost of raising children, exacerbate this low fertility rate. At the same time, Italy boasts one of the highest life expectancies, resulting in it having the second-highest percentage of the elderly population.
17. Hungary
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 12%
Annual Population Change: -0.30%
Composite Ranking: 17
Hungary is also among the countries with the most rapid population decline because of a high rate of emigration, especially among the young and educated. This brain drain exacerbates the population decrease. Additionally, Hungary has one of Europe's lowest fertility rates, influenced by economic uncertainties and changing societal values. Notably, in Hungary, there are nearly 1.9 million individuals aged 65 and above, and out of these, approximately 1.3 million experience various disabilities.
16. Armenia
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 12.25%
Annual Population Change: -0.40%
Composite Ranking: 16
Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union, Armenia has faced economic hardships, leading many to migrate abroad, particularly to Russia and Western countries. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which is a territorial and ethnic dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, also contributes to displacement and insecurity in the country. Despite government efforts to encourage repatriation, the trend of emigration continues.
15. South Korea
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 16.13%
Annual Population Change: -0.20%
Composite Ranking: 15
South Korea is facing a demographic crisis with the world's lowest fertility rate, standing at just 0.84 children per woman. The high cost of living, competitive job market, and demanding education system discourage many South Koreans from starting families. Traditional family expectations and gender roles further complicate the issue, placing significant burdens on women and challenging the prevailing family culture.
14. Poland
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 12%
Annual Population Change: -0.50%
Composite Ranking: 14
Poland's fertility rate, at approximately 1.32 births per woman, falls below the replacement level, making it one of the countries with declining populations. This demographic challenge is intensified by people's emigration, especially towards Western Europe following EU accession. Additionally, Poland confronts an aging population, characterized by a growing proportion of elderly citizens and a shrinking working-age population.
13. Lithuania
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 22.10%
Annual Population Change: 1.10%
Composite Ranking: 13
Among countries where the population is continuously decreasing, Lithuania is experiencing one of the most severe declines. Since its peak in the early 1990s, Lithuania's population has decreased by over 20%, currently standing at 2.8 million. This significant reduction from 3.9 million in the 1990s can be attributed to a combination of high emigration rates and a low birth rate. Economic factors, particularly after joining the EU, have driven a youth exodus. Moreover, Lithuania's birth rate, which hovers around 1.6, and its aging population contribute to this decline. Bogulsavas Gru?evskis, who heads the Centre of Social Research in Vilnius, has highlighted a demographic shift in Lithuania where soon, for every 100 people in the workforce, there will be 50 retirees, indicating a significant number of people outside the reproductive window.
12. Latvia
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 21.60%
Annual Population Change: -1.00%
Composite Ranking: 12
After gaining independence in 1991, Latvia has witnessed a population decrease of approximately 27%, declining from 2.6 million in 1990 to 1.8 million now. This trend is expected to continue, and the country's population is projected to reach 1 million by 2050.
11. Greece
Population Decline Between 2020 to 2050: 13.40%
Annual Population Change: -0.70%
Composite Ranking: 11
Greece's population decline is a recent phenomenon exacerbated by the financial crisis that began in 2009. The crisis led to high unemployment rates, which in turn prompted a wave of emigration, and it also had a negative impact on birth rates. Additionally, the aging population is another contributing factor, with over 21.8% of the country’s population being 65 or older.
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Disclosure: None. 24 Countries With Biggest Population Decline is originally published on Insider Monkey.