80% of Americans think it's a bad time to buy a house
Confidence in the housing market reflects mortgage rates remaining elevated, survey finds.
Americans are in limbo about where the housing market could go next, but they are resolute about the conditions for buying right now.
Nearly 80% of Americans think it’s a bad time to buy a house, according to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), a survey gauging homebuying and selling confidence. The index stayed flat in April compared to the previous month as consumers adjust to elevated mortgage rates that show little promise of easing. The average rate on a 30-year loan stood at 7.22% last week. Consumer confidence is still up 8% year over year.
In addition, fewer Americans believe mortgage rates will decline over the next 12 months, sidelining buyers awaiting affordability improvement.
"Housing sentiment increased from November through February, driven largely by consumer belief that mortgage rates would move lower," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. "However, recent data showing stickier-than-expected inflation, rising mortgage rates, and continued home price appreciation appear to have given consumers pause regarding the market's direction.”
A closer look at mortgage rates
Waning expectations of a rate drop are becoming a common trend.
In the latest survey, only about 1 in 4 Americans believed rates would drop over the next 12 months, a decline from nearly 1 in 3 a month prior. In comparison, at the beginning of the year, almost 40% of survey respondents said they expected rates to fall.
"[Strong economic and job market data] will keep mortgage rates at elevated levels for the near future, sidelining some prospective buyers from entering the housing market," said Edward Seiler, Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) associate vice president.
With rates hovering around 7% for a 30-year loan over the last few months, monthly mortgage costs have risen. The national median payment rose past $2,200 in March from $2,184 in February, according to the MBA. Payments could become even more expensive going forward as average 30-year loan rates surpassed 7% over the last three weeks, with no signs of falling.
Read more: Mortgage rates top 7% — is this a good time to buy a house?
Home sellers remain optimistic
Contrasting homebuyers' woes, an increasing number of Americans think now is a good time to sell. The share of survey respondents confident in selling reached nearly 70% in April, up from 60% at the beginning of the year and 62% in the same month last year.
Home sellers' growing optimism could be attributed to the continual growth in home prices nationwide. The latest national housing price index gained 6.4% in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price.
"As interest rates go up, people's purchasing power goes down, and thus, so should home prices. But that hasn't happened in this latest correction cycle," Jon Grauman, founder of Grauman Rosenfeld, a real estate firm in Los Angeles, told Yahoo Finance.
Consumers are braced for high prices — more than 40% of Fannie Mae's survey participants expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, compared to 37% earlier this year.
"We think consumers' generally improved sense of home-selling conditions bodes well for listings and housing activity, particularly for the segment of the population who may need to move for lifestyle reasons and have already begun adjusting their financial expectations to the current mortgage rate and price environment," Duncan said.
Correction: A previous version of this article listed the incorrect firm name for Grauman Rosenfeld. We regret the error.
Rebecca Chen is a reporter for Yahoo Finance and previously worked as an investment tax certified public accountant (CPA).
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