The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRS), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 63% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.11. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aclaris Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the eight analysts covering Aclaris Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$11.2m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a concerning 59% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$0.56. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$9.75m and losses of US$0.60 per share in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

The consensus price target rose 48% to US$2.30, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Aclaris Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$3.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1.20. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 51% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 42% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 10% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Aclaris Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.