Air Cargo Shows Strong First Half, With Q4 Peak in Sight

Air cargo demand has held up consistently strong in the first half of 2024, increasing 13.4 percent compared to the first six months of 2023.

On a two-year basis, the demand remains up 4.3 percent compared to 2022’s first half, according to a recent report the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

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The numbers, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), are a marginal improvement over 2021’s first half, outperforming the then-record first six months by 0.02 percent, when the Covid-19 pandemic e-commerce sales

Total demand in June rose by 14.1 percent compared to levels in the year prior, marking the seventh consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth. After seasonal adjustment, CTKs grew by 0.9 percent in June on a month-over-month basis from May. International air cargo volumes leapt up 15.6 percent.

Carriers from Asia Pacific and Europe contributed 40 percent and 24 percent of the total global cargo demand growth, respectively, the IATA said. Asia Pacific airlines enjoyed 17 percent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in June, while European airlines benefited from a 16.1 percent annual demand uptick.

“Maritime shipping constraints and a booming e-commerce sector are among the strongest growth drivers,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, in a statement. “Meanwhile, the sector has remained largely impervious to ongoing political and economic challenges, and the U.S. customs crackdown on e-commerce deliveries from China. Air cargo looks to be on solid ground to continue its strong performance into the second half of 2024.”

The Asia-to-North America trade lane, the largest trade lane by volume, recorded an annual increase of 12.8 percent, representing the largest annual increase in five months.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), increased by 8.8 percent compared to June 2023. This capacity fell 1.7 percent compared to May, but gained 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis. For the first half of the year, ACTKs grew 9.4 percent.

Air cargo capacity grew primarily on international routes, where the industry registered a 10.8 percent year-over-year expansion in June. Maintaining the trend of the past few years, the expansion in international ACTK was driven by a surge in international belly-hold capacity, which recorded the 38th consecutive month of double-digit annual growth in June with 16.8 percent. In comparison, capacity on dedicated freighters rose by a comparatively modest 4.1 percent year over year last month.