AMD Stock Drops Nearly 8% on Guidance Letdown, but It Raises 2024 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chip Sales Outlook

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Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) declined 7.6% in Tuesday's after-hours trading, following the chipmaker's release of its third-quarter 2024 report.The stock's drop is largely attributable to fourth-quarter revenue guidance coming in slightly lower than Wall Street had expected.

As to third-quarter results, revenue was a little better than the analyst consensus estimate while adjusted earnings were essentially in line with the estimate.

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On the positive side, management increased its forecast for 2024 data center artificial intelligence (AI)-enabling graphics processing unit (GPU) chip revenue. It now expects this metric to exceed $5 billion, up from its greater than $4.5 billion outlook in July, CEO Lisa Su said on the earnings call. Management has been regularly hiking this forecast, which was $4 billion in April and $2 billion at the start of the year.

Advanced Micro Devices' key numbers

Metric

Q3 2023

Q3 2024

Change YOY

Revenue

$5.80 billion

$6.82 billion

18%

GAAP operating income

$224 million

$724 million

223%

Adjusted operating income

$1.28 billion

$1.72 billion

34%

GAAP net income

$299 million

$771 million

158%

Adjusted net income

$1.14 billion

$1.50 billion

33%

GAAP earnings per share (EPS)

$0.18

$0.47

161%

Adjusted EPS

$0.70

$0.92

31%

Data source: Advanced Micro Devices. GAAP = generally accepted accounting principles. YOY = year over year.

Growth was driven by strong performances by the data center and client segments. Investors should focus on the adjusted numbers, as they exclude one-time items.

Wall Street was looking for adjusted EPS of $0.91 on revenue of $6.71 billion, so AMD modestly surpassed the top-line expectation and essentially met the bottom-line estimate. (I say "essentially met" because it only beat the estimate by $0.01, or by about 1%.) The company also exceeded its own revenue guidance of $6.7 billion. (It doesn't issue a profit outlook.)

In the quarter, AMD generated cash of $628 million running its operations, up 49% from the year-ago period. It ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $4.54 billion, down from $5.34 billion in the prior quarter. The company ended the period with long-term debt of $1.72 billion, unchanged from the prior quarter.

The decline in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments was driven by a cash outflow of $548 million in the quarter associated with the acquisition of Silo AI, which closed in August. Prior to being bought by AMD, this company was reportedly the largest private AI lab in Europe.