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As America Votes, These Big Energy Projects Hang in the Balance
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As America Votes, These Big Energy Projects Hang in the Balance
(Bloomberg) -- The outcome of next week’s US presidential election is poised to have profound implications for a handful of multi-billion-dollar energy projects.
Republican Donald Trump, who has vowed to end climate policies he’s dubbed Washington’s “green new scam,” has pledged to get producers pumping more oil and gas to bring down energy costs. “They’ll be drilling so much,” Trump said at a rally last week in Greenville, NC. “If they drill themselves out of business, I don’t give a damn, right? We’re going to get your prices down so low.”
Democrat Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has hailed the promise of innovation and investment in emission-free energy as a way to drive economic growth while lowering household bills. She’s largely expected to stay the course that President Joe Biden charted on the issues, including by moving to restrict emissions from facilities that have escaped previous regulation, though some environmentalists hope she’ll take a harder stance.
Of course, candidates’ past positions aren’t necessarily proof of what’s to come — take Harris’ shifting stance on fracking, for instance — and both campaigns didn’t respond when asked if their earlier statements still hold. But with a lot of money, infrastructure and potential climate impacts on the line, the owners of energy projects planned or operating across the US are bracing for potential changes from Washington. Here are three of the projects with the most at stake:
CP2 LNG
The future of Venture Global LNG Inc.’s proposed liquefied natural gas export facility in Louisiana, known as CP2, was thrown into question earlier this year when Biden paused issuing new LNG export licenses following vocal opposition from climate activists. Even though a federal judge halted the moratorium in July, the situation has been little changed.
Before he leaves office, Biden could lift the pause himself or direct the Energy Department to write new rules governing when proposed LNG exports are in the public interest. But even if he were to kick off changes, the outcome would be shaped by the next president.
Trump has vowed he’d end the licensing pause his first day in the White House. “We’ll supply all of Asia with oil and gas, which they need,” Trump promised a recent rally in Pennsylvania. Harris hasn’t specified what she’d do on the issue, though she has often highlighted the surge in US oil and gas production under the Biden-Harris administration — a signal to voters she could take a more moderate stance toward fossil fuels if elected.
Related: Harris Touts Record Oil Boom in Rare Embrace of Fossil Fuels
CP2 would process about 20 million metric tons of LNG a year — and, according to opponents, would produce greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to putting 1.8 million new gasoline-fueled cars on the road. Venture Global says the project will export enough natural gas to replace 33 coal-fired power plants, enough to reduce approximately 140 million tons of greenhouse gases per year.
Other companies waiting for such export licenses include Energy Transfer LP and closely-held Commonwealth LNG.
Dakota Access Pipeline
Eight years ago, Energy Transfer’s Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) that transports oil from North Dakota to Illinois was thrust into the national spotlight following a series of grassroots protests near the Standing Rock reservation. Now, the next president may have a chance to make or break its future.
The nearly 1,200-mile pipeline, which has been operating since Trump’s first year in office, is still waiting for the US Army Corps of Engineers to redo its environmental analysis of the pipeline’s path under Lake Oahe, used by nearby Native American tribes as a source of water. The agency outlined five possible outcomes in its court-ordered draft analysis last year, from seeking a reroute to allowing the company to increase the volume of oil permitted under the existing easement, but it sidestepped identifying its preferred approach. Even if that recommendation comes as part of a final environmental impact statement before the end of the year, the new president could still step in.
Trump already took action on the issue when he was in charge, issuing an executive order expediting DAPL’s approval. After leaving the White House, he signaled his support hadn’t changed: “If I were president right now,” he told Fox Business in 2021, “they’d all be working like crazy to build pipelines.” Energy Transfer Chief Executive Officer Kelcy Warren is a top Trump donor. The company didn’t reply to requests for comment.
Harris hasn’t explicitly said what she would do, but she wasn’t shy about criticizing the project as a US senator from California, arguing it threatened tribal rights and access to clean water. “Opposing DAPL is about protecting the water we drink and leaving our children a sustainable future,” Harris wrote in February 2017 following Trump’s order. Three years later, Harris joined a group of Democrats in an amicus brief urging a federal district court to halt pipeline flows while the environmental review was underway.
Progressives prioritizing DAPL’s closure face long odds, said Christine Tezak, a senior director with Washington-based consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners. “It’s a lot harder to shut something down once its operating.”
SouthCoast Wind
Offshore wind projects depend on the federal government from cradle to grave — from the leases they’re built on to the policies that govern their eventual decommissioning. With the Republican nominee harboring a long-running disdain toward the sector, pledging in May “to write it out in an executive order,” a Trump win would put any offshore wind farm in a precarious position. Projects still awaiting final authorizations would be at greater peril, subject to indefinite delays if the government were to halt permitting.
The 2.4-gigawatt SouthCoast Wind farm planned near Massachusetts is especially at risk, given its timeline. The site is expected to clear a US environmental review later this year and could even win a positive record of decision approving the project before Biden leaves office. But that would leave Ocean Winds North America LLC still missing a key federal authorization needed to begin construction. And right now, the US government says that is unlikely to come before late March.
“Ocean Winds will continue to develop our US projects, including SouthCoast Wind, in the coming years, and we stand ready to work together with the administration to build a prosperous clean energy future,” Michael Brown, CEO of Ocean Winds North America, said in an emailed statement.
Other projects still pending at the Interior Department include ventures planned by Avangrid Inc., Orsted AS, EDF Renewables and Shell New Energies US LLC.
QuickTake: Offshore Wind Industry Braces for Trump’s Turbulence
Harris has not outlined specific plans for the nascent US offshore wind industry, but the projects are aligned with her promise of clean energy development. Offshore wind enthusiasts have largely rallied behind Harris, including during a September fundraiser.
