Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX:ALL) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)
AU$1.63b
AU$1.82b
AU$2.00b
AU$2.23b
AU$2.40b
AU$2.55b
AU$2.68b
AU$2.79b
AU$2.89b
AU$2.99b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x4
Analyst x4
Analyst x2
Analyst x1
Est @ 7.72%
Est @ 6.13%
Est @ 5.01%
Est @ 4.23%
Est @ 3.69%
Est @ 3.30%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.0%
AU$1.5k
AU$1.6k
AU$1.6k
AU$1.7k
AU$1.7k
AU$1.7k
AU$1.7k
AU$1.6k
AU$1.6k
AU$1.5k
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$16b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.0%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$66b÷ ( 1 + 7.0%)10= AU$33b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU$50b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$58.2, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 26% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
dcf
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Aristocrat Leisure as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.124. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Aristocrat Leisure
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Hospitality industry.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.
Opportunity
Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Aristocrat Leisure, there are three important items you should look at:
Future Earnings: How does ALL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
