'Black Widow' may outdo 'F9' as streaming turns box office into 'Wild West'

Alexandra Canal
·Senior Reporter
3 min read
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The latest installment of the "Fast & Furious" franchise — which blew away box office expectations this weekend— is raising the bar for other summer tentpoles, most notably Marvel's (DIS) "Black Widow."

"F9" dominated theaters, securing $70 million in U.S. ticket sales — the highest pandemic-era opening to date. The Vin Diesel action film stole the title from "A Quiet Place II," which earned $57 million in ticket sales during its Memorial Day weekend opener last month.

"This is absolutely another positive step forward for the movie industry," Shawn Robbins, Box Office Pro's chief analyst, told Yahoo Finance.

"This is the kind of opening that we almost would have expected from this movie pre-pandemic," he added. The performance "sets the stage" and "raises the bar" for future film debuts like "Black Widow," an "Avengers" spin-off set to hit theaters on July 9.

"Marvel has always been the one franchise throughout this recovery that many expected to bring back moviegoers en masse," Robbins said, citing similarities between the superhero film, "F9" and "A Quiet Place II."

(Courtesy: Marvel Studios)
(Courtesy: Marvel Studios)

However, the biggest difference lies in "Black Widow's" hybrid release strategy.

The film will simultaneously be available on Disney+ as a $30 premium VOD rental — a notable risk when it comes to future box office potential and a "an evolving Wild West vibe in terms of what this will look like in the long term," the analyst noted.

Still, Robbins said that "the sheer power of the Marvel fan base, which has both a diehard segment and a very casual moviegoer segment, will really pull out a lot of people [to the theater], especially on opening weekend."

The 2-year stretch between now and the last Marvel blockbuster has created "pent up demand," Robbins said, adding that "Widow" has the "potential to outdo ['F9']" in terms of domestic ticket sales.

AMC sees traffic revival as lockdowns ease

(Source: Placer.ai)
(Source: Placer.ai)

One of the industry's largest exhibitors, AMC (AMC) recently added to theatrical optimism. On Monday, it revealed that chains across the U.S. secured their busiest weekend since theaters shut down in March 2020 — with 2 million guests visiting AMC locations nationwide.

AMC has been a hot topic of conversation amid the meme stock trading frenzy, with many analysts casting doubt on the company's fundamentals — yet the stock has skyrocketed over 2,500% year-to-date.

However, separate data backs up AMC's recovery story. According to foot traffic analytics platform Placer.ai, monthly visits to AMC cinemas across the U.S. have shown steady improvement.

Visits were down 68.5% in May compared to May 2019 — a slight uptick from April when the visit gap stood at 70% and a significant boost compared to January, when visits were still down over 80%.

Box office analysts anticipate ticket sales will continue to improve as more films come to market.

According to a recent note from Bloomberg Intelligence, films like "Dune," "Top Gun: Maverick," "No Time to Die," "Venom 2," and "Eternals" — coupled with loosening capacity limits and restrictions amid the COVID-19 vaccine rollout — will help drive $5 billion in gross ticket sales in 2021.

"Visibility remains limited, but box office estimates have been steadily rising," the report noted.

Still, despite the uptick in consumer confidence, other analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with roughly 20% of theaters still shut down across the U.S., according to Comscore.

"There's not going to be an 'F9' released every weekend just yet," Box Office Pro's Robbins warned. "This is still a market that's recovering."

Alexandra is a Producer & Entertainment Correspondent at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alliecanal8193

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