BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL) shareholders notch a 16% CAGR over 5 years, yet earnings have been shrinking
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Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX:BSL) share price is up 90% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 25% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 17% in the last year, including dividends.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
See our latest analysis for BlueScope Steel
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
BlueScope Steel's earnings per share are down 0.7% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
On the other hand, BlueScope Steel's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 11% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. If you are thinking of buying or selling BlueScope Steel stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, BlueScope Steel's TSR for the last 5 years was 113%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!