Brazil Central Bank Doubles Pace of Interest Rate Hikes With Half-Point Rise

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s central bank raised its key interest rate by half a percentage point, doubling the pace of monetary tightening as uncertainty over public spending and Donald Trump’s presidency fuel inflation expectations that are already above target.

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Board members unanimously decided to take the benchmark Selic to 11.25% late on Wednesday, as expected by all economists in a Bloomberg survey. It’s the second rate increase in a campaign that started in September with a quarter-point boost.

“The Committee stresses that a credible fiscal policy committed to debt sustainability, with the presentation and execution of structural measures for the fiscal budget, will contribute to the anchoring of inflation expectations and to the reduction in the risk premia of financial assets, therefore impacting monetary policy,”: policymakers wrote in a statement accompanying their decision.

Central bankers led by Roberto Campos Neto opted for a bigger rate hike as the government’s expansive fiscal policy and a tight job market keep consumer demand elevated. In addition, a severe drought has driven up food and energy costs while doubts about President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s commitment to spending cuts have weighed on the real.

“Gradual monetary movements are more efficient,” especially in an outlook marked by anxiety over the government’s spending plans, Tatiana Pinheiro, chief economist at asset manager Galapagos, said before the decision.

Lula’s policies, including expanded government transfers to the poor and minimum wage hikes, have boosted household consumption and pressured consumer prices. Now his ministers are debating some cuts to outlays in an attempt to rebuild investors’ trust in the sustainability of public accounts. Discussions are centered on how to limit programs whose funding needs are rising above the limit established in Brazil’s fiscal rules.

Campos Neto has said the government needs a “positive fiscal shock” to rein in not only inflation but also investors’ expectations for large rate hikes, which he has described as “exaggerated.” Traders have priced in the Selic surpassing 13% next year.

A tumble in the real — which weakened more than 14% so far this year — is further complicating the bank’s job of taming prices, making imports more expensive. The currency fell as much as 2% earlier on Wednesday amid a broader emerging market selloff following Trump’s election win in the US.