Bulls will dominate 2015: Raymond James
2014 will go down in history as a great year for U.S. stocks (^GSPC) and investors just may get a repeat performance in 2015. “We are in a secular bull market. Secular bull markets, if you study them, tend to run 10 to 15 years with returns of 16% per year. We are five years into this one,” says Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist, at Raymond James.
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Saut’s bullish view is shared by others including Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Investments. In an interview with Yahoo Finance last month, Smith noted few things can derail a bull market. “They die in anticipation of the next recession and really, there are no signs flashing any warnings that a recession is imminent.” The November jobs report, in which U.S. employers added 321,000 jobs across the board, reinforces that view.
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The bull market may also continue to get a boost from lower oil prices, according to Saut. Already this year the Dow Transports (^DJT) have advanced 24% and that rally may continue. “Any industry that benefits from lower energy prices is going to do well. That would be things like airlines, cruise lines, trucks and even the rails.” WTI crude (CLF15.NYM) is averaging $65 a barrel, down 31% from January.
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One wildcard for investors: Washington D.C. As the Republicans prepare to take control of the Senate Saut predicts less gridlock. “They [Democrats] are going to lean on the President to take some baby steps towards compromise. If that happens the stock market explodes because that has been a missing ingredient for five years.”
The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) are on pace for double-digit gains this year. If Saut’s predictions are accurate investors could enjoy similar returns in 2015 even if the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates.
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