Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ is set to release third-quarter results on Oct 31. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a profit of 67 cents per share on revenues of $6.4 billion.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced this independent energy company’s performance in the September quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at CNQ’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q2 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, this Calgary, Alberta, Canada-based upstream operator beat the consensus mark due to strong production. Canadian Natural reported adjusted earnings per share of 64 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 62 cents. Revenues of $6.6 billion also beat the consensus mark by 6.8%.

CNQ topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.2%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:

Canadian Natural Resources Limited Price and EPS Surprise

Canadian Natural Resources Limited price-eps-surprise | Canadian Natural Resources Limited Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has been revised 1.5% upward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 30.9% drop year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 13.3% decrease from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

Robust oil prices are likely to have significantly benefited CNQ’s third-quarter revenues and cash flows. In particular, our estimate for North America Light Crude Oil & NGL price is pegged at C$71.28 per barrel, indicating a 3.9% improvement from C$68.59 reported in the year-ago quarter.

The company is also expected to have reaped the reward of higher production during the quarter. According to our model, Canadian Natural is likely to have churned out an output of 1,402,141 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up about 1% from a year ago. This momentum could be attributed to CNQ’s broad portfolio of low-risk exploration and development projects with strong international exposure.

Finally, the recent startup of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is likely to have left a positive impact on Canadian Natural. This project enhances the company’s ability to transport crude oil efficiently, reducing bottlenecks and transportation costs. Improved pipeline infrastructure is expected to have supported higher export volumes, better pricing and increased profitability, contributing to CNQ’s third-quarter financial outlook.

However, the increase in Canadian Natural’s Transportation, Blending and Feedstock costs might have dented its to-be-reported bottom line. As per our model, the metric is expected to show 7.6% growth over the third quarter of 2023 to C$2.5 billion.