Caribou Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRBU) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.8% to US$3.50 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Revenues came in at US$2.4m, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at US$0.46 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Caribou Biosciences

After the latest results, the consensus from Caribou Biosciences' six analysts is for revenues of US$8.73m in 2024, which would reflect a substantial 74% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 47% to US$1.87 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.54m and losses of US$1.79 per share in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts are negative in this update. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to to its losses per share forecasts.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$19.75, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Caribou Biosciences at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 83% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 53% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Caribou Biosciences' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Caribou Biosciences. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.75, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Caribou Biosciences. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Caribou Biosciences analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Caribou Biosciences (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.