Home price growth in the US surged at a record pace in March

Home price growth in the U.S. surged at a record clip, reaching a pace not seen in more than 15 years.

Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index posted a 13.2% annual gain in March, up from 12% in February — marking the 10th straight month of accelerating prices. The last time home prices surged at such a rapid pace was more than 15 years ago in December 2005. The national index is up 32% from its July 2006 peak. The 20-City Composite posted a 13.3% annual gain, up from 12% a month earlier. The results far outpaced analysts’ expectations of a 12.5% annual gain, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

“Housing prices continued to rise robustly in March 2021,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a press statement. “The unusual strength is reflected across all 20 cities; March’s price gains in every city are above that city’s median level, and rank in the top quartile of all reports in 19 cities.”

Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle continued to top the 20-City Composite. Phoenix led for the 22nd straight month, posting a 20% annual gain, followed by San Diego and Seattle, which recorded a 19.1% and 18.3% annual gain, respectively.

According to a recent Reuters poll, U.S. house prices are forecast to outpace GDP growth and consumer inflation — rising at a blistering pace to average 10.6% this year, almost double the 5.7% predicted in February.

The results were highly anticipated. Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the median existing-home price for all housing types in April was $341,600, up 19.1% from April 2020, as every region recorded price increases, a record high since NAR started tracking prices in 1999. It also marked 110 straight months of year-over-year gains.

“With demand in high gear and no respite in sight, home price growth is likely to remain in double digits over the coming quarter,” said CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp in a statement prior to the results. “While inventory challenges remain the focal point of housing market trends, it’s important to highlight the massive buildup in demand this year — which is trending 20% above 2017 – 2019 levels — and is contributing to widespread bidding wars among buyers.”

Total housing inventory at the end of April was 1.16 million units, down 20.5% from one year ago — the lowest level since NAR started tracking homes for sale in 2011. Inventory, however, was up 10.5% from March, an indication that homebuilding is picking up.

"March saw a more modest retreat in inventory, suggesting that the historically tight inventory pressures may finally be starting to ease. But that anticipated relief has not yet materialized and the competition for the relatively few homes on the market remains red hot," said Matthew Speakman, an economist at Zillow, in a press statement following the home price data release.

'Socioeconomic trends are driving' price growth

“The S&P Case-Shiller Index shows that home prices accelerated, with the 10- and 20-city indices posting yearly gains, as buyers engaged in bidding wars on a dwindling supply of homes for sale in an effort to beat rising mortgage rates,” said Realtor.com Senior Economist George Ratiu in a statement prior to the results. “A number of socioeconomic trends are driving the double-digit home price increases. Americans who could work remotely during the pandemic have likely cut costs and are eager to funnel their savings into a shrinking number of homes for sale while they can still take advantage of historically-low interest rates. From a demographic standpoint, millennials are coming of homeownership age and embracing life in suburbs and smaller cities, while Gen Xers need homes that can accommodate caring for college kids and aging parents, and Baby Boomers are looking for retirement homes.”

CJ Dalton President Taryn Byron told Yahoo Finance Live Monday that record savings rates, in particular, are encouraging millennials to buy homes.

“We're going to continue to see housing benefit from this pent-up savings because there's really no inventory on the market,” Byron added. “We're about 30% to 50% down over the 10-year average of our inventory in the real estate market across the country.”

“Housing affordability is going to be really the key to track here moving forward. And we may not get a little bit of an easing just in terms of more inventory coming on the market sooner rather than later,” TD Ameritrade Senior Market Strategist Shawn Cruz told Yahoo Finance Live Monday, noting the soaring cost of lumber as well as metals that go into homebuilding.

Amanda Fung is an editor at Yahoo Finance.

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