CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$1.4b, some 6.0% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$1.55, 40% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for CF Industries Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, CF Industries Holdings' 16 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$5.95b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 8.6% to US$5.89 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.58 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$86.84, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on CF Industries Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$105 and the most bearish at US$69.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.4% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.7% per year. It's pretty clear that CF Industries Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around CF Industries Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that CF Industries Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$86.84, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.