Coronavirus pandemic is the new buzzword on the Street. That’s a lot different than the word used by most on Wall Street throughout the breakout of the deadly disease up until this point: epidemic.
We aren’t at coronavirus pandemic levels just yet, which is good news for humanity. But investors have finally taken off the rose-colored glasses amid scores of new information from health officials and major companies, looked in the mirror and realized coronavirus is a more serious situation than first thought. And that needs to be priced into equities across the globe, and quickly.
Investors return to the market Monday to that happening — Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are plunging greater than 800 points. Gold has continued to get a bid, climbing to seven-year highs. The 30-year Treasury note has hit a record low and big-time risk off moves in equities have swept the globe. Traders have flooded into the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven, with the strength likely to add further pressure to multinational company earnings in the first quarter.
The weekend news flow on coronavirus has been brutal to say the very least, justifying the flight to safety Monday.
Italy’s confirmed coronavirus cases spiked to 150 on Sunday from three on Friday. The country has quarantined several cities in the hopes of preventing the spread of the disease. South Korea has reported hundreds of fresh infections. Iran has said at least 12 people have died. Meanwhile, the numbers of those infected continues to rise in China and Japan.
The thinking right now: no country is immune, and there could be greater downside risk to global growth estimates (which have already been falling...).
“The week started with heavy losses in Asian markets as the number of coronavirus cases outside China surged, spurring worries that it could become a global pandemic,” said Swissquote Bank senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya in an early morning note to clients today. “There is a risk of a sharp downside correction, yet we do not rule out the possibility that prospects for more monetary support from the central banks would sustain the U.S. stock rally after a potential downside shock, in which case, only investors with very solid nerves would be rewarded.”
Bad news on the corporate front continues as well.
Companies’ sales warnings
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett cautioned in a television interview that his collection of industrial businesses —from furniture to railroads — may be getting hurt by the coronavirus. MGA Entertainment’s founder Isaac Larian — maker of the popular Bratz doll line —warned in an FT interview the toy business would be hit “big-time” from the coronavirus. China is the manufacturing hub of the toy industry — 80% of toys come from the country. Larian said toys could be out of stock as soon as Easter.
This comes on the heels of a material sales warning from tech giant Apple a week ago. The company’s business is being hampered by empty stores in China and closed manufacturing plants vital to iPhone production.
“The market hasn’t reflected any of this stress: the last correction of 5% of more was August 2019, and that month also marked the last time the VIX moved above 20, and the last time we had a daily market move of 2% or more. Corrections don’t happen according to a calendar, but it feels like we’re overdue one,” said Brown Brothers Harriman chief investment strategist Scott Clemons.
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and co-anchor of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance. Watch The First Trade each day here at 9:00 a.m. ET or on Verizon FIOS channel 604. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
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