• The crypto market shrugged off HBO's 'big reveal' and BTC remains unchanged after Peter Todd was named as Satoshi.

• China's post-holiday rally has come to a screeching halt with indices well into the red during the morning trading session.

Bitcoin {{BTC}} remains little changed as a hyped HBO documentary turned out to be a market dud, and traders await the latest U.S. economic figures, scheduled for later Wednesday and Thursday, before further positioning.

BTC lost just 0.4% in the past 24 hours, with a 0.61% drop in major tokens tracked by the liquid CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index. Ether {{ETH}} rose 0.3%, BNB Chain’s {{BNB}}, Solana’s {{SOL}} and XRP {{XRP}} were little changed. Sui Network’s {{SUI}} fell 7% after a multi-week run that saw the token gain over 20% since late September.

The HBO documentary "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" sparked significant interest and speculation in the cryptocurrency community about the identity of Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, in the past week. Nakamoto’s true identity, in theory, could be a sudden volatility-boosting event for crypto markets, and past attempts have been unfruitful.

HBO continued that streak by pinning Bitcoin developer Peter Todd as Nakamoto on pieces of online evidence from the network’s early years. Todd denied the claims in an interview with CoinDesk, and the Bitcoin community on X has largely dismissed HBO’s apparent findings.

Betting market activity

Over $44.3 million was bet on Polymarket as to who would be identified as Satoshi. Most of the volume was split between Len Sassaman and Adam Back, who both caught the eyes of bettors in the market’s early days.

Another market that asked bettors if Satoshi’s identity would be proven this year was fairly unchanged despite the documentary hype. The ‘Yes’ side of “Not Proven in 2024” dipped to 82% from 98% when the documentary was announced, but quickly moved back into the 90s within three days. It is currently at 95.5%.

ETFs bleed money, China rally wanes

On Tuesday, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. recorded a cumulative outflow of over $18 million, SoSoValue data show, with Fidelity’s FBTC losing over $48 million. ETH ETFs recorded over $8 million in withdrawals, led by a $4.8 million outflow from Bitwise’s ETHW product.