Dalio: 'Risks are so much more to the downside'

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates

Billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder of $160 billion hedge-fund behemoth Bridgewater Associates, thinks the Federal Reserve should not take the risk of tightening monetary policy with an interest rate hike right now.

Speaking at the CNBC Delivering Alpha Conference, Dalio disagreed with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s recent comments that the Fed should hike sooner than later.

“I think that that’s wrong. At this stage, the risks are so asymmetric,” Dalio said.

“Like, there’s no doubt that you can slow the world economy, the U.S. economy. Tightening will work. Okay? And when we look at the inflation pressures, you know, this is a global thing. And you look at the demographics. All of those things means that the risks are so much more on the downside.”

And if there’s a sudden downturn, central banks just don’t have the ability to lower rates materially. This is because the Federal Reserve has already inflated its balance sheet while bringing its target interest rate down to near 0%.

“If you have a downturn…and you don’t have the power, we’ve never been in a world together that’s been like this. You know?”

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on Sept. 20-21 to decide whether or not it will hike rates. Currently, market economists expect the Fed to wait until its December meeting to make any changes.

Dalio believes it would be dangerous for the Fed to make a move that the market isn’t anticipating somewhat.

“It’s a risky thing to raise interest rates more than is discounted on the curve,” he said.

These warnings come as experts warn about the already massive amount of debt outstanding and the diminishing returns of those incremental amounts of debt. Dalio said at the beginning of the panel that that, “There’s only so much you can squeeze out of the debt cycle,” and “We are there.”

He added that we are getting close to “pushing on a string.”

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