Disney serves as a ‘consumer tracker’ amid recession watch, analyst explains

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As investors and analysts watch to see if rising rates and rampant inflation dampens consumer spending, which could tip the U.S. into a recession at some point, the world of Disney (DIS) may prove to be a useful economic barometer.

"Disney really is in many ways a consumer tracker," Wells Fargo Securities Senior Analyst Steven Cahall told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). "If you think of someone who has kids and family, they’re probably spending some of their money on Disney every year. Folks who are into cruises or going to theme parks, they’ll probably have some money going to Disney every year. If you’re a sports fan, you probably engage with ESPN and have some money being spent every year."

"So when we see the markets going down on the risk of a recession, Disney is going to track some of that to a certain extent," Cahall added.

A view of The first Disney flagship store in China, and the largest in the world, in Shanghai, China, February 27, 2022. (Photo by Costfoto/Future Publishing via Getty Images) · (Future Publishing via Getty Images)

As consumers and businesses face higher costs across the board, the Walt Disney Company is in the midst of negotiating where it can pass along expenses in its theme parks, merchandise, and content divisions before consumers push back.

Disney executives were pleased with the recovery of the parks and resorts business in the second quarter, despite the added pressure on margins from higher wages, supply chain constraints, and coronavirus capacity restrictions.

"We feel really good about the consumer demand and what we're seeing in the forward-looking bookings and everything else in the attendance levels," Disney Chief Financial Officer Christine McCarthy said during the earnings call. "We do pay close attention to all the recent inflationary pressures, and it covers everything from merchandise to food and beverage."

Visitors take photos at the Hong Kong Disneyland, Thursday, April 21, 2022. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung) · (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Disney's value proposition for streaming subscribers

On the direct-to-consumer side, Disney's strategy was scrutinized this quarter as programming and production costs increased for streaming services like Disney+. Still, Disney managed to add nearly 8 million subscribers to its platform while Netflix took a hit.

On the earnings call, Disney CEO Bob Chapek highlighted that the company was introducing a new ad-supported tier for Disney+ at a lower price point in order to avoid churn from consumers looking to cut costs. (Chapek also hinted that it would raise the price of the primary Disney+ offering over time.)

"We've been very comfortable with the price-value relationship that we've offered," Chapek said during the fiscal second-quarter earnings webcast. "And as you know, as we increase our content investment, we believe that that's going to give us the ability to adjust our price, and still, at the same time, maintain that strong value proposition."