On the other hand, other currencies are suffering under the weight of the dollar and the likelihood that Trump’s policies will affect most major economies.

Dollar Index Fundamental Analysis

Since Trump’s win, experts have predicted a bright future for the US economy and the dollar. Before his win, Trump had proposed some drastic changes that would boost economic performance in the US. Some of these changes include aggressive trade practices that would mean higher tariffs on imported goods to boost local businesses. At the same time, he proposed more strict laws on immigration and more significant tax cuts.

Such policy changes will significantly hurt economies that export most of their products to the US. The most affected countries are China, the Eurozone, and Canada. Consequently, the Canadian dollar, the Euro and the Yuan have plunged in response to Trump’s win.

Furthermore, experts have noted that the Republican party will have control over both houses of Congress, making it easy to pass these policy changes. An unexpected rebound in the economy and demand will likely lead to a spike in inflation. The US Central Bank has been working tirelessly to reduce demand in an overheating economy. Signs of a slowdown allowed the Fed to pivot and start cutting interest rates.

However, with the new president, the future might be complicated. If inflation spikes, the Fed will be forced to pause its rate cuts and even increase interest rates. Such an outcome would be bullish for the dollar.

Currently, Fed rate cut expectations are dropping. Last week, markets were pricing an over 80% chance of a December rate cut. However, this probability has fallen to 69%. If this drop continues, the dollar index will keep climbing.

Dollar Index Technical Analysis

On the technical side, the 4-hour chart shows a new high for the bullish trend. The price had initially traded above the 22-SMA in a steep bullish trend before pausing near the 104.50 resistance level.

Here, the price made a deep pullback that broke below the SMA. At the same time, the RSI dipped below 50 into bearish territory. However, bears failed to sustain a move below the 103.50 support level. Meanwhile, a sudden surge in bullish momentum led to a gap above the 22-SMA. Similarly, the RSI crossed back into bullish territory.

The dollar index is currently back in a bullish trend pattern, making a higher low and high while respecting the 22-SMA as support. Therefore, bulls might soon revisit the 105.75 resistance level.

However, on a larger scale, the RSI is showing fading momentum, making lower highs and lows. If this continues, the price might make another corrective move before it climbs higher.