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Donald Trump has made at least a dozen tax cut promises. Can he keep any of them?
It was at a campaign stop Sunday night when Donald Trump used a high-profile stage to unveil perhaps one of his final promises of the campaign.
"I am announcing a new policy today that I will support a tax credit for family caregivers who take care of a parent or a loved one," he told a cheering crowd at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
The proposal was, by Yahoo Finance's count, at least the 12th distinct tax cut promise Trump has made in recent months. The dizzying array of pledges include his calls for fully extending his 2017 tax cuts with modifications and an array of add-ons such as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits.
In a recent podcast appearance with Joe Rogan, Trump doubled down on an idea he has toyed with for months to eliminate income taxes entirely because, in his view, tariffs will bring in so much revenue.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally on Oct. 27 at Madison Square Garden in New York. (Peter W. Stevenson /The Washington Post via Getty Images) ·The Washington Post via Getty Images
"Did you just float out the idea of getting rid of income taxes and replacing it with tariffs? Are we serious about that?" the podcast host asked Trump.
"Yeah, sure," Trump responded. "Why not?"
Economists say Trump’s math doesn’t add up with tariffs currently contributing less than 2% of federal revenue and the idea seen as unlikely to gain traction outside of the ultraconservative side of the Republican caucus on Capitol Hill.
But that tally doesn't include the idea of eliminating income taxes entirely — not to mention the caregiver credit or other recent plans to make car loan interest fully deductible or another recently promised cut cut for Americans who live abroad.
Harris, of course, has her own tax cut ideas, but the sheer scale of Trump's promises are notable.
Trump is also promising one significant tax hike (though he'd never call it that) in the form of those tariffs that experts say could add thousands to US family budgets. Tariffs are taxes that are paid by importers at US points of entry, with the additional costs often passed on to consumers.
The list of tax cuts unfurled during the campaign has been met with a combination of shock and dismissive eye-rolls from tax experts, but the critics have done little to dissuade him from unveiling new proposals regularly and dangling the promised new benefits directly to the groups of voters most interested.
Here's a quick pass through Trump's many promises and the many challenges they would face before becoming law:
Promises for significant voting blocs
Many of Trump's ideas are clearly intended to appeal directly to blocs he needs to win in November.
"Do we have any people that work in restaurants?" he asked a recent crowd in Reading, Pa., before reiterating his promise of no tax on tips. Likewise, his recent auto loan idea was unveiled in Motor City, aka Detroit.
When the audience includes seniors, his focus switches to removing taxes on Social Security benefits. Trump's plan there would cut into the program's funding source and has led to worry it could produce an even faster decline in the safety net program.
Indeed, these targeted proposals have, in addition to their cost, also been criticized by economists for potentially warping incentives if, say, the tips or overtime are not taxed but regular wages are.
A recent analysis from the Budget Lab at Yale focused on how implementing these ideas would heighten "horizontal inequities" in the tax system. In other words, two people making the same amount of gross pay could pay vastly different taxes depending on whether their compensation does or does not include tips or overtime.
Democrats have been even less kind. "These tax proposals he's floating out of desperation are as fake as his tan," Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden offered in a statement. "Trump knows Republicans in Congress have no intention of passing this stuff, but he goes ahead and blurts it out anyway.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign event last August in Asheville, N.C. (Grant Baldwin/Getty Images) ·Grant Baldwin via Getty Images
Trump has weighed in on the key 2024 issue of housing affordability by unveiling a GOP platform that promises to "promote homeownership through Tax Incentives and support for first-time buyers." That's an idea the CRFB estimates could cost between $100 and $350 billion if enacted.
Trump's promise is to make interest on car loans would function similarly to the current mortgage interest deduction for homeowners.
"We're going to make it fully deductible, the interest payments," Trump said while unveiling the idea, saying it would revolutionize the auto industry and comparing the idea to the invention of the paper clip.
"You have to make sure that you are registered and you are going to vote, because I'm going to take very good care of you," Trump promised that audience in a web video.
A series of promises tied to a coming 2025 tax debate
Trump has also made a wide array of promises directly linked to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Those tax changes that Trump himself signed into law came with an expiration date on major provisions at the end of 2025.
The GOP nominee is pledging to fully extend expiring provisions of those tax cuts. It's his most expensive promise and one that he repeats at nearly every campaign stop but one that his allies on Capitol Hill may be shifting away from.
That 2017 law also lowered the federal corporate tax rate to 21%. Trump now wants it even lower and has settled on 15%, calling it a "Made in America tax credit." It's a rate he previously worried privately was too low and another front where his party might not be fully behind him.
Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump dances onstage before a banner touting a 15% corporate tax rate during a campaign speech in Savannah, Ga., on Sept. 24. (CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images) ·CHANDAN KHANNA via Getty Images
Trump has also pledged to reverse a separate provision of the 2017 law that put a $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. That cap was included at the time to help offset some other costs but is deeply unpopular in coastal — and often Democratic-run — states with higher local taxes.
Trump unveiled that idea in (where else) New York, where anti-SALT sentiment runs deep. He repeatedly the promise during a second New York stop, promising it again during remarks at the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner in Manhattan.
Finally, Trump has teased additional unspecified cuts "for working families" as part of next year's tax negotiations but hasn't offered any additional details there.
It all adds up to a massive slate of pledges that pushes the bounds of even presidential campaign trail promises.
And is Trump even done? That remains to be seen with just a few days remaining until voting ends and plenty of campaign stops ahead and other ideas are definitely out there.
During a recent podcast interview, George "Tyrus" Murdoch floated the idea to Trump of eliminating taxes for veterans and police officers and others who serve.
Trump sounded intrigued, offering "I've never heard that before" calling it an "interesting thing."
Ever since Vance's August comment Trump has been, according to aides, considering getting behind "a significant expansion" there.
This post has been updated with additional developments.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
Every Friday, Yahoo Finance's Rachelle Akuffo, Rick Newman, and Ben Werschkul bring you a unique look at how U.S. policy and government affects your bottom line on Capitol Gains. Watch or listen to Capitol Gains on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
