Earnings are growing at Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) but shareholders still don't like its prospects

In This Article:

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN), since the last five years saw the share price fall 16%. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 8.4%.

With the stock having lost 8.4% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

View our latest analysis for Evolution Mining

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Evolution Mining actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 11% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

Generally speaking we'd hope to see stronger share price increases on the back of sustained EPS growth, but other metrics may hold a clue to why the share price performance is relatively modest.

The modest 1.0% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 11% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth

Evolution Mining is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Evolution Mining will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Evolution Mining's TSR for the last 5 years was -6.1%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!