BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX:BSL) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at AU$17b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 12%, coming in at just AU$1.80 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for BlueScope Steel

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 14 analysts covering BlueScope Steel is for revenues of AU$16.1b in 2025. This implies a measurable 5.7% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 33% to AU$1.23 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$17.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.72 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of AU$21.95, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on BlueScope Steel's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BlueScope Steel at AU$25.57 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$17.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - BlueScope Steel is expected to lag the wider industry.