Key Takeaways

• More than 90% of reports from S&P 500 companies are in, with third-quarter profits up 6.8% year-over-year.

• Still, this will be a busy week of earnings, with results set to come from Walmart and other big retailers.

• Tech giant Nvidia's results, due after Thursday's closing bell, "can dictate the near-term direction of the market," Bank of America analysts wrote.

Earnings season is almost done—but a big finale is expected this week.

More than 90% of reports from S&P 500 companies are in, according to a Monday note from Oppenheimer, which said third-quarter profits are up 6.8% year-over-year—with eight of the benchmark index’s 11 sectors reporting rising earnings—on the back of 5% revenue growth.

Those numbers are a bit higher than FactSet’s “blended” figure, which combines reported results with estimates for those yet to announce; as of Friday, those were at 5.4% for profits and 5.5% for revenue. “Results are showing a robust third quarter,” Oppenheimer wrote.

Still, some of the biggest events on the calendar remain ahead. Retailers Walmart (WMT) and Lowe’s (LOW) are set to deliver results Tuesday, while Target (TGT) and TJX (TJX) are expected to deliver their numbers a day later. Taken together, the results—and any updates to the companies’ outlooks—could offer fresh perspective on the state of the consumer ahead of Black Friday.

The main event, however, may come Thursday after the bell, when chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report results. Big Tech broadly has so far exceeded Wall Street’s earnings growth expectations in the third-quarter, UBS strategist Jonathan Golub noted last week.

The last of the Magnificent Seven tech giants to report, Nvidia—one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year—is expected to both deliver big revenue growth and illustrate the state of ongoing demand for the technology underpinning artificial intelligence.

Nvidia is “the most dominant stock in the market,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a Sunday note, saying it is responsible for a fifth of the S&P 500's return over the past 12 months. “With the market taking a breather last week following the election rally, we believe Nvidia earnings can dictate the near-term direction of the market.”