(Bloomberg) -- Prospects for a potential merger between health insurers Cigna Group and Humana Inc. hinge on the upcoming US presidential election, analysts said.

Most Read from Bloomberg

• Climate Change Is Killing Buildings in Slow Motion

• A Broken Oil Pipeline Plunges South Sudan’s Capital Into Chaos

• Drug Decriminalization Spawns a Political Debacle for Progressives

• How Kyiv Became a Leader in Digital Services Amid Wartime Strain

• Cities Look to AI to Flag Residents’ Trash and Recycling Mistakes

While the Biden administration has moved to block some large health-care deals, talks would be “only tangibly moving forward if Trump wins” in November, Stephens analyst Scott Fidel wrote in a research note.

Cigna’s stock dropped as much as 3.2% at the New York market open Monday following a Bloomberg News report late Friday that the insurance giants had revived discussions. Humana shares rose as much as 3.1% on Monday.

The companies abandoned merger talks late last year after the sides couldn’t agree on a price, Bloomberg reported in December. Since then, however, Humana’s shares lost more than 40% of their value through Friday’s close, as the Medicare-focused insurer struggled with rising care expenses and stricter federal payment policies.

The company’s stock price plunged this month on a surprise downgrade to crucial Medicare quality scores linked to billions in government payments. The insurer is contesting those ratings. Humana “may want to get paid for a view that the inherent earnings of the business is materially higher” than an offer based on its current stock price would reflect, Leerink Partners analyst Whit Mayo wrote.

A deal would draw attention from antitrust regulators, who might try to block it, TD Cowen analyst Ryan Langston wrote. “Any formal announcement before the presidential election seems highly unlikely,” he wrote.

Cigna, meanwhile, is exiting the Medicare market and has been a bright spot during a difficult year for US health insurers. Its shares rose about 30% since the merger talks ended last year through Friday’s closing price.

“Strategically, we think this deal make sense, the financial part is harder to support,” Mayo wrote.

(Opens shares in third paragraph.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

• AI Detectors Falsely Accuse Students of Cheating—With Big Consequences

• Once You Try a Four-Day Workweek, It’s Hard to Go Back

• The Surprisingly Lucrative Business of Recycled E-Waste

• Developing Countries Can’t Count on Manufacturing to Supercharge Growth

• BYD Is Winning the Global Race to Make Cheaper EVs

?2024 Bloomberg L.P.