Existing home sales rise slightly in November as mortgage rates fall
Sales climb 0.8%, ending a run of monthly declines
Homebuying activity picked up slightly in November, but the housing market is still pretty much stalled as home prices continue to climb higher.
Total existing home sales inched up 0.8% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis when compared to the previous month, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on Wednesday, ending a five-month streak of monthly declines. Although November’s sales fell 7.3% year over year, the annual rate of 3.82 million exceeded Bloomberg’s forecast of 3.78 million and beat out October’s 3.79 million.
The median sales price for existing homes rose 4% year over year to $387,600, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases. The inventory of unsold existing homes dropped 1.7% from last month to 1.13 million units at the end of November, or the equivalent of 3.5 months’ supply. Housing experts recommend six months of housing supply for a balanced market.
November’s continuing low transaction activity demonstrated that homebuyers remain on the sidelines of the housing market as affordability challenges persist. But many experts expect the market to turn as buyers welcome moderating mortgage rates.
Read more: Mortgage rates are falling. Will 2024 be a good time to buy a house?
“I think this is the cyclical low point,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said Wednesday during a press call. “Maybe we have one more (month of) similar sales activity, but home sales always respond to lower interest rates when interest rates decline. After a few months, we (will) see the revision in sales.”
Slow recovery expected in 2024
NAR forecasted that existing home sales will increase by 13.5% to 4.71 million units in 2024, from the 4.1 million anticipated by the end of this year. The housing market’s predicted double-digit growth would be the result of this year’s reversing trends, including increasing inventory, retreating mortgage rates, and stabilizing — even declining — home prices.
A mortgage rate pullback would greatly impact the existing home market through rising inventory and decreasing borrowing costs. For the majority of 2023, homeowners stayed put in their current homes in order to keep their low mortgage rates, keeping prospective listings off the market. Potential homebuyers also retreated as record low inventory and high rates squeezed up home prices.
But it will take at least a couple of months for the market to turn.
“We may not see any meaningful recovery for at least two or three months, just because even with meaningfully lower mortgage rates, there is a natural time involved [in the homebuyer process],” Yun said, “[and homebuyers] do not change their mindset from being on the sidelines to going into the market in one day.”
While rates likely won’t return to pandemic lows of 2% to 3%, housing economists predict the average mortgage rate will slowly fall to mid-6% in 2024 thanks to decelerating inflation. Last week, mortgage rates hit the 6% range for the first time since August, with the average rate on the 30-year mortgage dropping to 6.95% from 7.03% the week before, according to Freddie Mac.
“In last week’s meeting, the Fed kept the target rate steady, as expected, but signaled that multiple rate cuts could be in order next year as inflation continues to slow,” Hannah Jones, Realtor.com’s senior economic research analyst, said prior to the release of existing home data.
Another housing expert forecasted that a market shift will bring a 1% decrease in home prices. A Redfin report predicted that prices will drop year-over-year in the second and third quarters of next year, when the spring buying season receives a number of potential buyers.
Read more: How to buy a house in 2024
“That will mark the first time prices have declined since 2012, when the housing market was recovering from the Great Recession,” Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, wrote in a blog this month, “with the exception of a brief period in the first half of 2023.”
The volume of mortgage applications also ticked up in November. Purchase mortgage applications increased 21.8% annually in November, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
“We are forecasting that lower rates should help to keep this demand strong as we enter the spring homebuying season,” Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, said.
While November’s existing home sales data underscored a continued depressed housing market, many experts are optimistic.
“Though housing affordability is likely to persist as a key challenge to prospective buyers next year,” Jones said, “we expect that the market will see small wins with lower mortgage rates and softening home prices.”
Rebecca Chen is a reporter for Yahoo Finance and previously worked as an investment tax certified public accountant (CPA).
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