Fed's Bowman and Bostic caution against rate cuts too soon

Two Federal Reserve officials said Monday they believe that holding interest rates at current levels for some time could bring inflation back down to the central bank’s target, pouring cold water on Wall Street expectations that cuts could begin in the first quarter.

One of these officials, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, kept the prospect of interest rate hikes on the table should progress on inflation stall.

But she moderated a view expressed in November that the Fed would have to raise rates further to get inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target.

SINTRA, PORTUGAL - JUNE 28: Michelle Bowman, member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,arrives to attend the afternoon session on the last day of the 2023 European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking on June 28, 2023, in Sintra, Portugal. The Forum's last day is devoted to discuss monetary policy normalization, the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy in the context of high inflation, and lessons from recent experiences in macroeconomic forecasting. The European Central Bank hosts its annual Forum on Central Banking from June 26-28, 2023. This year the Forum addressed the macroeconomic stabilization in a volatile inflation environment. (Photo by Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images)
Fed governor Michelle Bowman. (Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images) (Horacio Villalobos via Getty Images)

"My view has evolved to consider the possibility that the rate of inflation could decline further with the policy rate held at the current level for some time," Bowman said in a speech in Columbia, S.C., before the South Carolina Bankers Association.

While she acknowledged it would eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering rates to prevent the policy rate from becoming overly restrictive, she said "we are not yet at that point."

The comments don’t match the aggressiveness sought by investors who have priced in six rate cuts this year, double the median of three rate cuts projected by all Fed officials. Wall Street expects those first cuts in March.

Read more: What the Fed's rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, in separate remarks Monday before the Rotary Club of Atlanta, also said he is inclined to hold rates steady to be sure inflation is really returning to target before beginning to cut.

He reiterated a previous prediction that two cuts could happen in the second half of the year.

"We are in a restrictive stance and I’m comfortable with that, and I just want to see the economy continue to evolve with us in that stance and hopefully see inflation continue to get to our 2% level," he said, according to media reports of his comments.

U.S. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks to reporters at the National Association of Business Economics' annual policy meeting in Washington, U.S. March 21, 2022. REUTERS/Ann Saphir
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. (Ann Saphir/REUTERS) (REUTERS / Reuters)

Bowman sounded more concerned than Bostic about the upside risks to inflation.

She pointed to geopolitical tensions that could affect the prices of food and energy. A recent easing in financial conditions could also encourage a reescalation of growth, stalling the progress in lowering inflation or even causing inflation to reaccelerate.

Another risk she cited was that a continued strong job market could lead a component of inflation — the services portion — to remain persistently high. December’s jobs report showed continued strength in job gains and wage growth, and the labor force participation rate declined.

"While the current stance of monetary policy appears to be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time, I remain willing to raise the federal funds rate further at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or reversed," she said.

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