Fed’s Harker calls for holding rates steady: 'The path we are on is the correct one'
Philadelphia Federal Reserve president Patrick Harker said Wednesday night he's in favor of continuing to hold rates steady, adding that strong readings on economic growth won't be enough to move him off this view.
"This economy is proving to be resilient … but I believe that the path we are on is the correct one," Harker said in a speech in at Northwestern University. "I am not going to be swayed easily by a single month's worth of data. One month can just be an outlier and not a harbinger."
Harker's comments come after the economy turned in a sizzling performance in the third quarter, growing at an annualized rate of nearly 5% driven by strong consumer spending. He expects GDP growth to cool in the coming quarters but isn't expecting a recession.
Like many Fed officials, Harker reiterated the lags with which monetary policy can impact the economy.
"Holding the rate steady will give those lags time to catch up," Harker said. "It will allow us to make more measured and educated policy rate decisions."
The Fed held rates steady in a range of 5.25%-5.50% for the second policy meeting in a row last week.
Read more: What the Fed rate-hike pause means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
The majority of the rate-setting committee has penciled in one more rate hike this year, leaving the last meeting in mid-December a possibility; officials will draw up fresh estimates for the path of interest rates then.
Harker said Wednesday he sees inflation dropping slowly and expects inflation to fall below 3% in 2024.
The Philly Fed president also said the labor market is coming into a much better balance and expects the unemployment rate to end the year slightly elevated from where it currently stands, to rise slowly towards 4.5% in 2024, and then fall again.
The unemployment rate stood at 3.9% in October, the highest since 2021, as job growth slowed further last month.
Harker also underscored that cutting rates won't happen in the short term and that rates will have to remain higher for longer.
"While I see us on the path of taming inflation and protecting our economic underpinnings, I would also caution that a decrease in the policy rate is not something that is likely to happen in the short term," Harker said.
"I ascribe to the position that rates are going to have to remain higher for longer, as the other downward pressures on inflation work in tandem with the current policy rate to return our economy to balance."
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