The five-year loss for International Consolidated Airlines Group (LON:IAG) shareholders likely driven by its shrinking earnings
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While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (LON:IAG) share price has gained 15% in the last three months. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. After all, the share price is down 62% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.
While the last five years has been tough for International Consolidated Airlines Group shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
See our latest analysis for International Consolidated Airlines Group
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, International Consolidated Airlines Group moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.
In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 11% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
International Consolidated Airlines Group is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of International Consolidated Airlines Group, it has a TSR of -41% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that International Consolidated Airlines Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 38% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 7% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand International Consolidated Airlines Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for International Consolidated Airlines Group (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.