Fed officials may set up stocks for year-end rally
Day one of the FOMC's two-day October meeting is underway and the agenda is likely a lot longer than many officials anticipated.
In just one month, oil prices have tumbled to the $79 level, the euro zone's economic data points continue to be bleak and the S&P 500 (^GSPC), amid extreme volatility (^VIX), erased all of its gains for the year before rebounding.
For Scott Nations, chief investment officer of NationsShares, this chain of events likely means there will be no change from the Fed at the conclusion of Wednesday's meeting. "The market realizes what's going to happen now if the Fed were to raise earlier than the market is ready for; we have seen some ugly taper tantrums over the last couple of years when it looks like the Fed is going to be less accommodative."
The majority of economists expect the FOMC to end its bond buying program as planned and leave interest rates unchanged, keeping the "considerable period" language intact, according to Bloomberg News.
The Fed's October meeting comes at a crucial time for U.S. stocks, says Nations. "We are at a critical level, earnings have gotten us back to the 50-day moving average in the S&P - that's about 1967 on Monday." Should the FOMC stay the course that will lend even further support to the market, Nations believes. "I think we will be a little bit higher from here by the end of the year."
On Thursday investors will turn their attention to third quarter GDP which is expected to show the U.S. economy grew at a pace of around 3%, according to several economists.
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