The initial wave of artificial intelligence investing has shaken up the stock market. Suddenly, technology stocks are divided between those that have exposure to AI and those that don't. The former category has soared to set records while the latter has been lackluster because of the state of sluggishness in the non-AI business world.
Within AI stocks that have outdone themselves, semiconductor stocks are a standout. Additionally, just as is the case with broader technology stocks, semiconductor stocks are also divided between those with AI and non-AI exposure. The best example of the former category is Wall Street's top AI stock pick. This stock is of a firm that designs and sells GPUs used to process AI workloads. Its shares are up 845% since the 2023 start and have set multiple records since OpenAI's Chat GPT became publicly available.
On the flip side, another semiconductor stock has floundered during the same period even though it's one of the oldest and largest semiconductor companies in the world. This stock belongs to a firm that is also one of the only three companies in the world that can manufacture high-end semiconductors and it is the only one which is headquartered in the US. While the GPU designer's shares have gained 845%, over the same time, this semiconductor stock is down 13.9%, and year to date the shares have bled an unbelievable 53.14%.
Therein lies the bifurcation between semiconductor stocks that is fueled by the artificial intelligence wave. However, these returns might belong to the first stage of AI stocks only, implying that other semiconductor companies could also see gains provided robust AI software demand and the ability of firms to monetize their products. We covered a lot of such potential stocks as part of our coverage of Goldman Sachs’ Best Phase 2 AI Stocks: Top 24 High Conviction AI Stocks.
In this list, there were five semiconductor stocks. Four of these are semiconductor manufacturers while the remaining stock is the firm whose designs are the backbone of the modern-day smartphone industry. The stocks are ranked 19th, 16th, 14th, 8th, and 6th. Looking at their year-to-date performance, these stocks are up roughly 45%, 51.7%, 65.7%, 97.8%, and 122% year-to-date, respectively. Safe to say, the AI wave has been kind to these stocks. The next step in our brief analysis is to see what analysts believe the future holds for these firms. To do this, one particularly useful ratio is the forward price to earnings since it gauges the current price to analyst estimates of future earnings.
For these five phase two AI semiconductor stocks, the forward P/E ratios in respective orders are roughly 31.25, 50.51, 29.41, 25.19, and 99 times. The forward P/E ratio for global and US semiconductor stocks is 45.77 so most of these stocks are fairly valued. Consequently, this implies that in case of an AI correction that sees investor sentiment evaporate for any reason, these stocks might not be hit as hard as those speculating about an 'AI bubble' might worry, but if Wall Street finds more reasons to add to its AI euphoria, then their valuation might further bloom for more gains.
Shifting gears, the average forward P/E ratio for the semiconductor industry also leads us to wonder which stocks are driving this average value higher. After all, the six AI chip stocks we've covered above include some of the biggest companies in the world. However, high P/E ratios commonly belong to smaller companies that earn small profits but have a much higher share price. Two stocks that we've identified that have at least 2x the average forward P/E ratio are both unprofitable right now. The one with the higher forward P/E ratio of 196.08 ranks 20th on our list of Piper Sandler’s Top Technical Stock Picks: 20 Best Stocks while the second with a beefy ratio of 133.33 ranked 32nd on this list of AI stocks that were recently trending.
So, the next question to ask is, what makes these stocks so special that despite the fact that neither is currently profitable, investors have valued their shares more than 100 times over their projected earnings? Well, starting from the first stock with the higher P/E ratio, this firm is one of the few hardened integrated circuit manufacturers in the US. It makes radiation-resistant chips for the US military and its tools enable chip designs at various nodes. The second stock, which is up 49% year to date, is a specialty chip manufacturer that makes and sells silicon-based timing devices as an alternative to quartz-based products. These are used in applications such as edge computing and 5G networks - systems that are closer to end users and therefore must endure more strenuous working environments.
Our Methodology
To make our list of semiconductor stocks that fund managers love and hate according to BofA, we used its recent list of semiconductor stocks that were popular or losing popularity with fund managers. The list was divided into two sections based on expansion or decline in ownership. Stocks within each category were ranked by the number of hedge funds that had bought the shares during Q2 2024. For an interesting exercise, you can also compare these stocks with those on our lists of Goldman Sachs’ List Of Stocks That Hedge & Mutual Funds Love & Hate: 28 Stocks On The Mutual and Hedge Funds Radar.
For these stocks, we also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
A close up of a highly advanced mobile device with the company's branding visible.
Qorvo, Inc. (NASDAQ:QRVO) makes a variety of chips for communications, consumer electronics, and industrial markets. Its shares have been on quite a roller coaster ride this year. Qorvo, Inc. (NASDAQ:QRVO)'s stock tanked by 19.5% between late April and early May and the shares further dropped 16% in the first week of August after paring the May loss earlier. The May drop was after Qorvo, Inc. (NASDAQ:QRVO)'s Q2 revenue guidance of $850 million missed analyst estimates of $924 million by a wide margin. Then, the shares dropped further in August after the Q3 calendar quarter guidance of $1.03 billion met estimates. As a result, Wall Street concluded that the global smartphone market on which Qorvo, Inc. (NASDAQ:QRVO) relies for its revenue is yet to undergo a full recovery. With China's economic growth remaining muted, this pessimism is reflected in Qorvo, Inc. (NASDAQ:QRVO)'s stock.
Qorvo, Inc. (NASDAQ:QRVO)'s management shared details about the smartphone industry during the Q1 2025 earnings call. Here is what they said:
"Within mass-market smartphones, we secured multiple design wins with our recently launched portfolio of low, mid, high band pad. Each LMH pad integrates the low, mid and high band main path content that previously required two placements. This saves approximately 40% in board space, simplifies design and helps customers accelerate their time to market. In mobile Wi-Fi, MediaTek selected Qorvo as the exclusive supplier of Wi-Fi 7 FEMs for customers of their DX4 Wi-Fi chipset. MediaTek’s DX4 chipset and Qorvo’s Wi-Fi 7 FEMs are optimized to deliver superior performance for flagship and mass-market smartphones. We also expanded our Ultra-Wideband wins in the Android ecosystem to include an additional handset customer. Motorola’s Moto X50 Ultra, which launched in the June quarter, features Qorvo’s Ultra-Wideband SoC."
Overall QRVO ranks 9th on our list of the AI and semiconductor stocks in BofA's list that fund managers love and hate. While we acknowledge the potential of QRVO as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than QRVO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
