Games Workshop Group's (LON:GAW) 33% CAGR outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same five-year period

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When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on the bright side, if you buy shares in a high quality company at the right price, you can gain well over 100%. For example, the Games Workshop Group PLC (LON:GAW) share price has soared 256% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. It's even up 9.1% in the last week.

Since the stock has added UK£273m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Games Workshop Group

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, Games Workshop Group managed to grow its earnings per share at 17% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 29% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
LSE:GAW Earnings Per Share Growth December 19th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Games Workshop Group, it has a TSR of 318% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Games Workshop Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 22% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 33% per year, is even more impressive. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Games Workshop Group that you should be aware of.