Global unrest: Be cautious but don’t be afraid to buy stocks says Canally
Markets around the globe did not take kindly to President Obama’s plan for tactical air strikes against ISIS. Japan’s Nikkei shed almost 3%, while Europe dipped on the open and climbed back a little after digesting the news. Here at home however, the Dow and S&P 500 are both in the green, though admittedly not by much.
The question now becomes how much more can U.S. markets handle? Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, and now ISIS. These exogenous factors have to take their toll eventually, right?
John Canally of LPL Financial notes that these types of global crises are nothing new and U.S. markets will simply look to fundamentals for how to react in the longer term.
“I think right now if you looked at the underlying fundamentals of where we are on the market and the economy we’re still pretty strong,” he says. “But these exogenous factors have been threatening us now for the last couple of months. The latest flare-up, the air strikes in Iraq, that sort of took it up a notch...I don’t think they’re going away anytime soon. The market is just gonna have to get used to them.”
Canally also notes that with the bulk of earnings season behind us there’s not much in the way of new fundamental information coming our way. In other words, we’re stuck with the market we’ve got for at least the next couple months.
As for the roller coaster ride that has seen the market sink by about 3% in the past few weeks, Canally says it’s nothing to grow too concerned over. In fact, he points out, we’re long overdue not just for a 10% correction (we haven’t seen one in three years) but also smaller 5% corrections. The LPL strategist says on average the markets experience about four 5% pull backs each year. So far we’ve only seen one.
Even when we do see the inevitable pullback or correction, Canally says history has shown that, more often than not, “those generally have been bought not sold. People are seeing these dips as buying opportunities not as an opportunity to sell more.”
Canally also weighed in on the multitude of market watchers who have been telling anyone who will listen that stocks are overvalued here. He says they’re actually pretty average and any sectors that may be closer to the expensive side are “not a big impediment to stocks over the long term...we’re no longer cheap but we’re not overly expensive.”
Taken together, global unrest, overdue pullbacks and an average stock value, Canally says it’s a “reason to be cautious but not a reason not to buy.”