With the U.S. election fast approaching, trade policy remains a top concern, according to a Goldman Sachs report.

Goldman’s chief U.S. political economist Alec Phillips expects former President Donald Trump, if he were to get re-elected, to “quickly move” to raise tariffs on imports from China. He noted that Trump has proposed repealing Permanent Normal Trade Relations status for the Asian nation. But he also pointed out that while Trump has proposed a 60 percent tariff on all Chinese imports, that tariff rate is plausible on certain strategic imports and that tariffs on most consumer products would rise by less.

More from Sourcing Journal

• Maersk CEO Doesn't Expect US Election to Sway Container Demand

• Trump Win 'Carries More Disruptive Risk' to Container Market

• Election 2024: Wall Street Sees Risks Ahead

Phillips also said that there’s a “fair chance” at 40 percent that Trump could impose an “across-the-board tariff,” noting that section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 would give him legal authority to impose such a tariff of up to 15 percent for up to five months. He also said the more likely scenario in a second Trump Administration would be something that falls short of a universal tariff and instead focus tariffs on certain trading partners or products.

Election results for congressional seats could impact timing of tariff implementation. A Republican sweep scenario could crowd the agenda and push broader trade actions until later in 2025 or even 2026, in light of a potential early- to mid-year fiscal debate as the nation’s debt limits needs to be addressed by the third quarter of 2025. In a divided government scenario, a “sparse legislative agenda with the main fiscal debate not until year’s end could argue for earlier action on tariffs in a Trump administration,” the political economist said.

He also said that control of Congress could influence capacity constraints in connection with immigration and unauthorized border crossings. A fiscal package under a Republican sweep would likely include new immigration enforcement funding. That could see net immigration slow to a rate of 750,000 a year, just below that between 2017 to 2019. A Trump/divided government could see immigration closer to 1.25 million a year, or slightly above the 2017-2019 rate.

Phillips said a Harris administration isn’t expected to produce any major changes in policy, but immigration is still expected to “continue to decline from the 2023 peak before settling at 1.5 million a year.”

Apparel and retail trade groups have long criticized the policy of raising tariffs. Their reasoning is that tariffs are the equivalent of taxes on goods purchased by American consumers.