The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.4% short of analyst estimates at US$459m, and statutory earnings of US$1.89 per share missed forecasts by 3.6%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for American Woodmark

Taking into account the latest results, American Woodmark's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.82b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 6.4% to US$6.53 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.88b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.52 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$104, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on American Woodmark's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on American Woodmark, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$112 and the most bearish at US$96.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting American Woodmark is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that American Woodmark's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 4.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that American Woodmark is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for American Woodmark. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$104, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for American Woodmark going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of American Woodmark's balance sheet, and whether we think American Woodmark is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.