Here's how my 'Trump trade' is doing
Here’s an update on the “Trump trade” I placed on Oct. 30. I placed it to get in on the action and see what it’s like to bet on an election. For reasons I explained in an article above, my main conviction was that traders are interpreting betting markets wrong, overestimating Trump’s odds of winning, and therefore bidding shares of Trump’s own company, parent of the Truth Social network, higher than conditions warrant.
So I bet that shares of Trump’s company, known by the ticker symbol DJT, would fall after the election. I got some help from professionals to structure my trade, which was a put option to sell Trump shares at a strike price of $25 before the contract expires on Nov. 15, 2024. Options contracts typically involve 100 shares, and the price per share when I bought was $3.90. So my total investment was $390.
This means I will begin to recoup my investment if shares of DJT fall below $25 by the time markets close on Nov. 15. I’ll break even, including my initial investment, at a price of $21.10. At any price below that, I’ll earn a net gain. If the price drops to $10, for instance, my net profit would be $1,110. If it drops to , I’d make $2,110. On the other hand, if DJT shares never go below $25 by Nov. 15, I’ll be out my $390 and the trade will be over.
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So, how am I doing? Pretty well, so far. Since I bought my put at a per-share price of $3.90, the put has gotten more expensive, which means investors now think it is more likely that DJT shares will decline than when I made my investment. The current price of the put option I bought is $5.10 per share, so I’m up 31%.
I could sell my put now for a small profit, but I’m more interested in holding on until after the election and seeing what happens. Even if I lose, I’m learning what it’s like to bet on elections. Plus, I’ve never bought options before and this is a fascinating way to learn how it’s done. I’ll write a follow-up story once my trade is over, letting everybody know whether I won or lost.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.
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