With a higher probability that Secretary Hillary Clinton will win the White House embedded in the latest polls, analysts say that overall the market is in a stronger position.
“A Clinton victory would be inflationary and supportive to higher bond yields due to a potential bounce-back in GDP growth (as corporates lose a reason to postpone capex decisions), a rise in minimum wages, and the potential for looser fiscal policy,” Credit Suisse’s Lori Calvasina said.
History is on the side of Calvasina’s assessment. Looking at data since 1928, S&P returns have been stronger under Democratic presidents than under Republicans.
However, Calvasina noted that the risk now for the markets has shifted to concern about less balance of leadership.
“In many investors’ minds, the perceived risks associated with a Trump victory in the Presidential race have been replaced with concerns about the implications of a Democratic sweep of leadership in Congress (for both the Senate and House to flip),” she said.
In the two year post-election period, median returns for the S&P 500 returns tend to be a bit stronger when Republicans control both chambers of Congress (34%) than when Democrats do (29%), according to Credit Suisse.
“We think this reflects an affinity among investors for a balance in leadership in Washington,” Calvasina said.
Sector winners
Overall, increased certainty under Clinton should help consumer spending and discretionary names, according to Credit Suisse. And while some may be pressured by higher labor costs—pushed higher by Clinton’s support for a higher minimum wage—companies have been able to offset these expenses while benefiting from more well-positioned customers. And, franchise-oriented companies—like McDonald’s (MCD)—should be more insulated.
Meanwhile Credit Suisse noted that stocks with international exposure—including the industrial sector specifically—are well-positioned under a Clinton White House.
This is related to fear over the implications of candidate Donald Trump’s isolationist views on trade, Calvasina said, which pose a risk to the economy and “challenge the fundamental playbook that equity investors have had in place over the last decade, in which global exposure/sourcing is viewed as a good thing and a driver of growth.”
Plus, Clinton—like Trump—also supports a big push in infrastructure spending, which should provide a boost to machinery names like Eaton (ETN) and Fluor (FLR), multi-industry names like United Technologies (UTX) and Honeywell (HON) along with aerospace and defense names like Boeing (BA).
Sector risks
Financials and health care could be more adversely affected in the short term over fears about increased regulatory pressures under Clinton, according to Credit Suisse.
However, these issues could be short-lived.
For the financials, the passage of the election removes a barrier to Fed rate hikes, where the steepening yield curve is positive for the group.
Credit Suisse specifically said it sees smaller regional banking names as out-sized winners, as they can avoid the issues—including heightened regulatory pressures, continued implementation of Dodd-Frank, and heightened scrutiny of consumer practices—that the bulge bracket banks must face.
One area that may be more permanently-negative? Lending names that focus on schools, because of increased scrutiny – including SLM Corp (SLM). For-profit colleges like Apollo (APOL) are also likely to remain under pressure.
Meanwhile, the healthcare sector tends to lag ahead of elections and then see some relief, especially as valuations have come down, Credit Suisse explained.
“Any further downward pressure on the group in the next few weeks has the potential to set up an interesting buying opportunity in the stocks,” Calvasina wrote.
Plus, Clinton’s support of the Affordable Care Act and further expansion of Medicaid would help acute care hospitals like HCA Holdings (HCA) and Universal Health Cervices (UHS) and Medicaid managed care companies like Centene Corp (CNC) even as diversified managed care companies like United Healthcare (UNH), Aetna (AET), and Humana (HUM) could get hit.
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