Inflation is cooling. The GOP wants you to remember it's up 17.9% since Biden took office.
Republicans and Democrats are focused on entirely different time frames when they discuss inflation, an issue that is sitting center stage in the 2024 election.
The GOP has been refining a case that the only period that matters is the last 36 months, a point of view Republicans hammered home Tuesday after new data from January provided a complete accounting of inflation in the first three years of Joe Biden's presidency.
"Bidenflation is here to stay," blared a release from a super PAC backing former President Donald Trump following a hotter-than-expected January inflation reading. The PAC listed 61 examples of price increases over Biden's entire presidency.
Democrats naturally want to focus on the second half of that era, when price increases began cooling considerably since peaking in June 2022 at 9.2%. Tuesday's numbers showed that inflation rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, down from 3.4% in December.
"Inflation declined by two thirds from its peak but we know there's still work to do to lower costs," Biden said in a statement Tuesday.
The issue points to a key political weakness for Biden when it comes to his handling of the economy, despite recent stock market gains, low unemployment, and millions of new jobs.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscored the political dilemma for Biden with some comments he made in a recent interview with the TV program "60 Minutes."
The prices of some things will decline as inflation comes down, but "we don't expect to see a decline in the overall price level," Powell said. "That doesn't tend to happen in economies, except in very negative circumstances."
Read more: Inflation update on everyday expenses: Prescription drugs down, pet care way up
A bevy of tough numbers — and a few bright spots — for Biden
Consumer prices rose by 0.3% between December and January and 3.1% over the entire last year. But every number is much more eye-popping when stretched to 18 months.
Topping the list is gasoline. Even as prices fell last month, prices at the pump are up over 33% since Biden took office.
That giant increase is partly due to deflation that was seen at the end of Trump's presidency due to declines in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. But don't expect that nuance to be reflected when Republicans bring it up.
Another politically fraught area is food prices. Like gasoline, both groceries and restaurant meals are up more than overall prices, with each rising about 21% even as prices have moderated in the last year.
And real buying power is down even when wage increases are taken into account. Average weekly earnings are up 12.8% since Biden's inauguration and lag behind those price increases.
One bright spot in Biden's inflation record is in the healthcare sector. The cost of medical care has risen just 6.7% over the last three years, with prescription drug prices rising even less.
Medical prices were a central element of 2022’s Democratic-passed Inflation Reduction Act, which allows Medicare to negotiate directly with drug companies and caps insulin out-of-pocket costs.
Many of those new efforts are only beginning and have yet to be felt in prices, but Biden touted his efforts in that arena this week.
"I'm fighting to lower costs for middle class families," his Tuesday statement read, citing first his efforts around "the cost of insulin and other prescription drugs."
'Americans continue to suffer'
But Democrats face an uphill battle on the issue, with poll after poll showing voters disapprove of Biden's handling of inflation.
A Yahoo News survey last month found just 34% of respondents approve of Biden's handling of the issue while 58% disapprove. A similar lopsided margin was found in an Economist/YouGov Poll conducted at the end of January.
Republicans clearly take heart in results like that and are set to keep hammering their message with a keen focus on cumulative inflation.
"A nearly 18 percent rise in prices since Joe Biden took office is one of the many reasons the American people are not buying the Democrats' out-of-touch sales pitch on the economy," said House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, a Republican from Missouri, in one of many such messages.
Another example of the emerging strategy came earlier this month when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared for two hearings before lawmakers. While the formal subject of her appearance was financial stability, GOP lawmakers repeatedly used the opportunity to focus on three years of inflation.
"Americans continue to suffer from the effects of 40-year high inflation experienced throughout the Biden term so far," Rep. Andy Barr, a Republican from Kentucky, told Yellen in one of many such comments.
Yellen tried to push back and focus on stronger economic numbers yet still acknowledged how Americans are feeling the effects of "a couple of years of high inflation."
Read more about the latest inflation data and what it means for markets:
Inflation: Consumer prices rise 3.1% in January, defying forecasts for a faster slowdown
Hot inflation reading reinforces the Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts in 2024
Cost of eating out continues to rise, a potential hit to restaurant chains
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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