Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

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Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.5% to US$155 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$2.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.4% to hit US$1.14 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Intercontinental Exchange

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Intercontinental Exchange's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$9.87b in 2025. This reflects a modest 7.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 26% to US$5.35. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$9.90b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.42 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$180, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Intercontinental Exchange at US$200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$148. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Intercontinental Exchange is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Intercontinental Exchange's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Intercontinental Exchange is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.