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While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Schindler Holding AG (VTX:SCHN) share price has gained 10% in the last three months. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. In fact, the share price is down 19% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
View our latest analysis for Schindler Holding
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Schindler Holding actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 6.2% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
The modest 1.8% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. The company has kept revenue pretty healthy over the last three years, so we doubt that explains the falling share price. There doesn't seem to be any clear correlation between the fundamental business metrics and the share price. That could mean that the stock was previously overrated, or it could spell opportunity now.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Schindler Holding is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Schindler Holding, it has a TSR of -14% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!