After weeks of warnings, many people aren't surprised to see that the average tax refund is a good deal smaller than a year ago.

The average refund was $2,903 — down 11% from a year ago — for early tax filers whose returns ended up being processed by the Internal Revenue Service through March 24. That's based on the latest IRS data posted online Friday.

Oddly enough, the IRS has issued about 1.5 million more refunds than last year — up 2.6% — during about seven weeks of the tax season.

Why the spike? It's a good question. More speculation on that later.

Purchasing I Bonds with tax refund: What to know about rates, deadline, restrictions

Why is my tax refund so low?: Tax refunds in 2023 could be smaller, take longer. Here's why

Doing your own taxes?: The best tax software

How long it's taking to get a refund once mailed

When does refund cash hit bank accounts? Tax refunds post via direct deposit every business day Monday through Friday. But not on weekends or holidays.

A refund check could show up in the mail on a Saturday, too.

If you do get the refund through direct deposit, experts say check with your bank to see when the money is actually available in your account, as that can vary by bank.

It can take up to 21 days to receive a federal income tax refund via direct deposit. But often refunds for e-filed returns are issued in less time than that.

"If you filed on paper and are expecting a refund, it could take four weeks or more to process your return," according to an IRS update posted online Jan. 30.

Why are refunds smaller?

Many people, no doubt, are upset to see a smaller refund, even though they might have heard that it was a possibility.

For many filers, refunds are down because we're looking a the elimination of the generous Advance Child Tax Credit and the recovery rebate credit on 2022 returns.

Thinking about investing your refund?: Here's how much you can make from investing your tax return every year

Tax diversification can help you save: Here's what to consider with your retirement funds.

Why are we seeing more refunds?

The spike in the number of refunds early in the tax season is somewhat puzzling especially when you consider that some key pandemic-related tax breaks came to a halt.

Some 59.3 million refunds were sent to taxpayers across the country through March 24.

If you're looking for a simple answer to explain the spike, good luck because I sure haven't found one. The IRS has not answered questions about why there are so many more refunds being issued this year than last.

The best guess is that there could be a few things at play here:

Taxes are simpler: Stick with me here. I know that taxes continue to trigger a great deal of stress in our lives. But many people are looking at less hassle this tax season than last year. Families, for example, didn't receive the Advance Child Tax Credit in 2022 so, unlike last year, they don't have to dig up letters from the IRS or find information about how much money they received months ago before filing a tax return. Many people due refunds could be able to file earlier this year than last because they don't have to spend as much time making sure their paperwork is in order. The same is true for economic stimulus payments and the recovery rebate credit, which is not on the 2022 tax return.

Many people got jobs: In 2022, employers ended up adding an unprecedented 4.5 million jobs. As people fill out their new W-4 forms, some might have more money withheld in taxes than in the past. Or they could be switching to jobs that have a W-4 withholding instead of being self-employed.

Some people who start new jobs contribute more money to a new 401(k) plan to capture the matching contributions. Such a move could reduce their taxable income and possibly allow for a tax refund this year when they didn't qualify for one last year.

Some people need extra cash: "It has been a difficult economic year," said Mark Steber, chief tax officer at Jackson Hewitt Tax Service.

On the one hand, consumers face high prices for food, fuel and other expenses. But they're no longer receiving extra money from stimulus programs, such as the advance child tax credit.

Many people could be "looking to their tax return refunds for some much hoped for relief," Steber said.

Steber argues that many taxpayers who aren't able to easily pay their monthly bills probably filed far earlier this year with the hope that tax refund cash could help out.

The IRS received 80.7 million through March 24, down just 0.8% from a year ago. The agency processed 80.4 million returns during that time, up 2%.

It's important to note that individuals decide to file earlier or later in the game. And they can switch up how they do things any year. The tax filing deadline this year is April 18 for many taxpayers. Early filers tend to expect a refund; late filers tend to owe money.

We don't know if the current trend toward more refunds will continue or if we'll see a flood of people who owe money filing later, possibly cutting significantly into the percentage change for the total number of refunds.

The IRS issued $172 billion in tax refunds through March 24, down 8.7% for the measure of total dollars issued from a year ago.

Scammers: It's hard to know whether more fraudulent returns are slipping through the IRS fraud filters, which have been pretty good at catching scams. But it's always a possibility that some of this uptick in refunds might mean that a few more fake returns are being processed and more refunds are being issued to bad actors.

The IRS warned taxpayers to watch out for posts on social media that claim to show you the way to create your own fake W-2 online to file a phony tax return to claim credits and trigger a big refund.

IRS processing delays

The IRS processing system faced massive delays and significant backlog of returns after a few rough years since the pandemic began in 2020.

At the start of this tax season, which began Jan. 23 when the IRS started processing e-filed returns, it was expected that the IRS was in better shape to handle the tax season.

Janet Holtzblatt, senior fellow at the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, said the early IRS statistics show tax returns are being processed more rapidly so far this year.

She attributes some of the improvements to the hiring of more employees and the agency's efforts to work through its burdensome backlog. Some early data also indicates that tax professionals are e-filing more returns than a year ago, up 6.1%, which helps speed up the processing of tax returns and payment of refunds.

"That's good news for the IRS and taxpayers," Holtzblatt said.

The Inflation Reduction Act, which was enacted in August, allocated nearly $80 billion over 10 years to the IRS. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's priorities for the IRS focused on clearing the tax return backlog, improving customer service, overhauling technology and hiring more workers.

Last year, Holtzblatt said, many people filed returns to tap into the expansion of the child tax credit, which is no longer in place for 2022 returns filed this year.

At the same time, many of those taxpayers faced delays in getting their refunds under the PATH Act passed in 2015, which stipulates the IRS must withhold refunds for filers who claim Earned Income Tax Credit and the Additional Child Tax Credit tax until Feb. 15.

It's possible, Holtzblatt said, that more early filers faced delays in getting their refunds last year. Some of the increase in refunds could be getting back to a more normal pace in issuing refunds quickly.

The IRS said earlier that it expected most Earned Income Tax Credit- and Additional Child Tax Credit-related refunds to be available in taxpayer bank accounts or on debit cards by Feb. 28 if taxpayers filed early, chose direct deposit and there are no other issues with their tax return.

Contact Susan Tompor: [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @tompor. To subscribe, please go to freep.com/specialoffer.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: IRS tax refund delay update: When can I expect my tax refund in 2023?