Ministers from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, two of the founding members of OPEC, are meeting at a natural gas forum in Mexico this week. The meeting may highlight the elephant in the room of world energy, namely that the natural gas revolution could be jeopardizing oil’s (and OPEC’s) hold on the global energy market.

The price of oil has dropped sharply since the summer. The bear market was further accelerated in early October when OPEC, driven by Saudi Arabia and Iran, boosted output by the most since 2011. (The Saudis and Iranians offered their oil at the steepest discount since 2008.)

Related: Oil hits $79, further declines expected: Goldman

Speculation has risen about whether the OPEC push to lower oil prices is intended to stem growing competition from natural gas producers, in short, treating it is an attack on the shale revolution happening in the U.S. Even excluding natural gas, OPEC predicts its share of the global oil market to shrink to 37% by 2017.

But whether that’s the motive or not, growing output and lower prices will likely impact energy policy in the U.S. following the midterms.

“Certainly the pressure to get the Keystone pipeline done has abated as a result of this drop in energy prices,” said Peter Kenny, CEO of Clearpool Group. “With Saudi Arabia basically saying the line in the sand [for oil prices] is $70/barrel I don’t think there’s any urgency really on the part lawmakers to do anything in terms of energy policy to change where they are now.”

Keystone was a key issue leading up to the midterms. Campaign mega-donor Tom Steyer spent millions trying to keep it from completion.

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As far as lower oil prices threatening the shale revolution, Kenny downplays that negative and instead highlights the good news: even if the natural gas production in the U.S. slows temporarily because of low oil prices, it still provides a psychological boost.

“From a strategic standpoint, from a national security standpoint, we have the energy we need come hell or high water,” he said. “It becomes non-economic at a certain point… That’s gotta be reassuring to legislators and to the American public that we are no longer at the end of a gun in order to get energy into the country.”

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So with the U.S. no longer at the end of that gun, it begs the question: “Do the Saudis really have the chops to be drawing any lines in the sand when it comes to crude?”

Kenny’s response? Not really. “They’ll certainly make a stab at it, but OPEC’s going to really wither under the pressure of market forces when it comes to energy,” he said.

“I think the Saudis are going to do everything they can to keep OPEC together and maintain market share, but it’s going to be really dramatic how that all unfolds.”

OPEC meets next November 27 in Vienna.

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