JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said the US economy has "not at all" entered a recession as he urged calm about this week’s market volatility, but he still sees the odds of one coming as more likely than not.
"Markets fluctuate," Dimon said in a CNBC interview. "I think people overreact a little bit to the daily fluctuation of the market. And sometimes it's for good reasons. Sometimes it's virtually [for] no reason."
On Monday, a weaker-than-expected jobs report, combined with some tepid tech earnings and the unwinding of the so-called carry trade, produced the most volatile day in the stock market since the onset of the pandemic.
Markets gave up more ground Wednesday as major stock averages are still shaking off Monday’s eruption.
When asked by CNBC if the US economy had already entered a recession, Dimon said "not at all." But Dimon made it clear he believes the odds of recession outweigh those of a soft landing.
He also cited uncertainties on topics ranging from geopolitics and the US deficit to quantitative tightening, housing, and elections.
Dimon became the latest of several Wall Street bosses and economists to downplay worries that this week's volatility on its own reflects an unhealthy economy. His firm, however, raised its expectations for a future recession later Wednesday.
JPMorgan economists now see 35% odds of a US recession before the end of the year, a 10% rise from early July expectations.
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon painted a more optimistic picture.
"My view is that the best chance, as we look forward, is the economy will chug along and we probably won't see a recession," Solomon said in a Bloomberg interview.
On Sunday, Goldman’s economists raised the firm’s expectation of a US recession coming in the next 12 months to 25% from 15%.
"But the possibility is not zero. It's never zero. I'd say it's slightly elevated from what we normally expect," Solomon added.
Year to date, the stocks of JPMorgan and Goldman are up more than 18% and 23%, respectively. A wider index tracking US banks (^BKX) is up 9% for the same period.
Though Dimon's views of a recession haven't risen, he did admit that JPMorgan's consumer credit losses have increased or "normalized" after record lows seen during the pandemic.
That "doesn't mean they can't go worse here," he said, pointing to future jobs reports as the key place to watch for a weakening US consumer.
The Federal Reserve is now expected to start cutting interest rates in September and markets expect that first cut to be 50 basis points, according the CME FedWatch tool.
When asked if that would affect the economy, Dimon said "I don’t think so." Nor does he think it would lead to a stagflation scare.
"If they do it, you know, I'm sure that they have good reason to do it, and I'll rely on their instincts. So I do expect they'll probably do it soon."
He also noted that "all of the expectations have been wrong too, so just always keep that in the back of your mind."
The 68-year-old Dimon made it clear earlier this year that he sees an end to his time as boss of the biggest US bank.
He told investors in May his timetable for an exit is "not five years anymore" and that the succession process is "well on the way,” putting a new spotlight on key deputies who are considered front-runners for his job.
He offered few new hints about that process Wednesday, but did note that he "might be chairman for a year or two" after he steps down as CEO.
When asked whether he would serve in the cabinet of former President Donald Trump if invited, Dimon said, "I am very happy doing what I am doing."
David Hollerith is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance covering banking, crypto, and other areas in finance.
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